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FINAL+22LV
PHX

PHX

21-14

6183
LV

LV

23-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAThu, Aug 21FinalSeriesLV wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Phoenix Mercury, 83–61. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

PHX
Alyssa Thomas

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

13.8Game score

17

Pts

11

Reb

6

Ast

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

16.3Game score

19

Pts

13

Reb

1

Ast

WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
61
83
PHX21-14LV23-14
PHX

PHX

21-14

61
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. ThomasA. Thomas★F · #25
3017116203-13
N. MackN. Mack★F · #4
193100010-11
S. SaballyS. Sabally★F · #0
251532002-10
K. CopperK. Copper★G · #2
20621002-9
M. Akoa MakaniM. Akoa Makani★G · #8
25961002-23
D. BonnerD. BonnerF · #14
19210001-20
K. WestbeldK. WestbeldF · #24
19250000-11
S. WhitcombS. WhitcombG · #33
16321000-1
L. HeldL. HeldG · #1
11201002-5
Team6143122213
LV

LV

23-14

83
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
231252000+1
K. BellK. Bell★F · #1
22613110+17
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
3019131111+8
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
331234201+15
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
271255122+10
J. LoydJ. LoydG · #24
26533200+19
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
191710100+22
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
10010100+5
Team833718944

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

31

FG %

47

12

Ast

18

Playoff series

LV wins series 4-0

Oct 4PHXPHX86@LVLV89
Oct 5PHXPHX78@LVLV91
Oct 9LVLV90@PHXPHX88
Oct 11LVLV97@PHXPHX86

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 1:44

PHXPHX
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

F

Game leader · 30 min

17 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 30 min

19 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

LV beat PHX 83-61. A. Wilson led with 19 PTS, 13 REB, 1 AST. LV outscored the other side 24-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs PHX

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
PHXPHXstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 32 REB · 10 AST

GS 33

Bench(7)

11 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

LVLVstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LV1st Quarter · 1:44 · 17-19
+6pp→ 67% WP

Kierstan Bell · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jackie Young assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
PHX1712171561
LV2320162483

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · LV won 3

17
23

Q1

Thomas 7

Young 7

12
20

Q2

Copper 3

Wilson 8

17
16

Q3

Sabally 7

Wilson 6

15
24

Q4

Thomas 5

Evans 7

PHX
LV

Shooting comparison

PHX
LV

31%

22-71

FG

47%

34-73

19%

6-32

3PT

27%

6-22

85%

11-13

FT

90%

9-10

Play-by-play · 367 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    PHX 61·LV 83

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    PHX 61·LV 83

  3. Q4·8.5

    shot clock turnover

    PHX 61·LV 83

  4. Q4·31.4

    Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 83

  5. Q4·33.5

    Kathryn Westbeld misses 25-foot three point jumper

    PHX 61·LV 83

  6. Q4·43.3

    Dana Evans makes two point shot

    PHX 61·LV 83

  7. Q4·49.0

    Megan Gustafson defensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 81

  8. Q4·51.0

    Lexi Held misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

    PHX 61·LV 81

  9. Q4·1:00

    Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 81

  10. Q4·1:03

    Megan Gustafson misses driving layup

    PHX 61·LV 81

  11. Q4·1:18

    Kiah Stokes defensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 81

  12. Q4·1:21

    Kalani Brown misses 21-foot jumper

    PHX 61·LV 81

  13. Q4·1:38

    Dana Evans makes 27-foot three point shot (Jewell Loyd assists)

    ·

    PHX 61·LV 81

  14. Q4·1:46

    Lexi Held bad pass (Jewell Loyd steals)

    ·

    PHX 61·LV 78

  15. Q4·1:55

    Kathryn Westbeld offensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 78

  16. Q4·1:59

    Kitija Laksa misses 25-foot three point shot

    PHX 61·LV 78

  17. Q4·2:02

    Kalani Brown defensive rebound

    PHX 61·LV 78

  18. Q4·2:04

    Dana Evans misses driving layup

    PHX 61·LV 78

  19. Q4·2:33

    Lexi Held makes driving layup

    PHX 61·LV 78

  20. Q4·2:42

    Kalani Brown defensive rebound

    PHX 59·LV 78

  21. Q4·2:44

    Megan Gustafson misses 26-foot three point jumper

    PHX 59·LV 78

  22. Q4·3:02

    Megan Gustafson defensive rebound

    PHX 59·LV 78

  23. Q4·3:05

    Kathryn Westbeld misses 12-foot two point shot

    PHX 59·LV 78

  24. Q4·3:18

    Dana Evans enters the game for A'ja Wilson

    ·

    PHX 59·LV 78

  25. Q4·3:18

    Megan Gustafson enters the game for Chelsea Gray

    ·

    PHX 59·LV 78

  26. Q4·3:18

    Kiah Stokes enters the game for Jackie Young

    ·

    PHX 59·LV 78

  27. Q4·3:18

    Mercury defensive team rebound

    PHX 59·LV 78

  28. Q4·3:19

    Jackie Young misses running pullup jump shot

    PHX 59·LV 78

  29. Q4·3:27

    Kiana Williams lost ball turnover (Jewell Loyd steals)

    ·

    PHX 59·LV 78

  30. Q4·3:50

    Kalani Brown defensive rebound

    PHX 59·LV 78

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

LV

Home

22-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-73

31

FG %

47

6-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-22

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-10

12

Assists

18

13

Turnovers

4

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Kahleah CopperPHX · G
    USG%.31099+
  • Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
    ORB%.05680

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · PHX favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

95

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Kahleah CopperPHX
    18.3± 7.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low

Rebounds

  • Natasha MackPHX
    8.2± 4.6low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • Alyssa ThomasPHX
    7.0± 3.8low

Assists

  • Alyssa ThomasPHX
    8.2± 1.9low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • Natasha MackPHX
    1.3± 1.8low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low

Steals

  • Alyssa ThomasPHX
    2.0± 1.6low
  • Natasha MackPHX
    1.2± 2.1low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

PHX

PHX

league avg

LV

LV

43.4%

FG%

44.9

▶

49.7%

32.3%

3PT %

33.0

▶

34.9%

85.6

PPG

86.0

▶

91.0

18.1

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

12.9

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop