Jul 5, 25sim 93
689
5(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+26NY
WSH
16-23
6389
NY
24-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Washington Mystics, 89–63. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
14.0Game score
18
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
NY · top performer
Emma Meesseman
C · #33
18.9Game score
15
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH16-23
6389
NY24-15
WSH16-23NY24-15
WSH
16-23
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -17 | |
| 33 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -28 | |
| 22 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | |
| 20 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | |
| 32 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -16 | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| Team | 63 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
NY
24-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
USG%.27771 ORB%.05671 DRB%.24771 | ||||||||
| 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| 28 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 29 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +26 | |
| 20 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 26 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +19 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| Team | 89 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 7 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, J. Jones, N. Cloud, S. Ionescu | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
50
17
Ast
23
Season series
NY wins series 4-0
May 30NY85@WSH63
NY85@WSH63Jun 5NY86@WSH78
NY86@WSH78Aug 28WSH63@NY89today
WSH63@NY89todaySep 9WSH66@NY75
WSH66@NY75Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:52
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 32 min
18 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
NYE. Meesseman
CGame leader · 28 min
15 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
NY beat WSH 89-63. E. Meesseman led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 27-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST
GS 30
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST
GS 8
NYstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 49
Bench(3)
35 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 35
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 20 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 63 |
| NY | 18 | 25 | 19 | 27 | 89 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · NY won 3
20
18
Q1
Citron 7
Johannes 6
17
25
Q2
Olsen 5
Harrison 9
12
19
Q3
Iriafen 8
Stewart 4
14
27
Q4
Austin 3
Stewart 7
WSH
NY
Shooting comparison
WSH
NY
42%
27-65
FG
50%
28-56
21%
5-24
3PT
48%
10-21
67%
4-6
FT
82%
23-28
Play-by-play · 347 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·2.0
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·4.8
Kiki Iriafen misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·16.3
shot clock turnover
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·29.3
Kennedy Burke offensive rebound
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·32.5
Marine Johannes misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·52.4
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·54.1
Emily Engstler misses 21-foot jumper
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·58.7
Kennedy Burke kicked ball violation
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:13
Rebekah Gardner out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:16
Jade Melbourne bad pass (Rebekah Gardner steals)
·
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:21
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Emma Meesseman
·
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:21
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:21
Breanna Stewart personal take foul
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:31
Breanna Stewart makes 4-foot layup (Emma Meesseman assists)
·
WSH 63·NY 89
- Q4·1:42
Madison Scott makes driving layup (Emily Engstler assists)
·
WSH 63·NY 87
- Q4·1:56
Rebekah Gardner makes 23-foot three point shot (Emma Meesseman assists)
·
WSH 61·NY 87
- Q4·2:01
Kiki Iriafen bad pass (Stephanie Talbot steals)
·
WSH 61·NY 84
- Q4·2:19
Breanna Stewart makes 4-foot layup (Emma Meesseman assists)
·
WSH 61·NY 84
- Q4·2:22
Emma Meesseman offensive rebound
WSH 61·NY 82
- Q4·2:24
Emma Meesseman misses 11-foot hook shot
WSH 61·NY 82
- Q4·2:48
Sonia Citron makes 23-foot three point jumper (Madison Scott assists)
·
WSH 61·NY 82
- Q4·3:06
Emma Meesseman makes 6-foot two point shot (Stephanie Talbot assists)
·
WSH 58·NY 82
- Q4·3:17
Madison Scott enters the game for Alysha Clark
·
WSH 58·NY 80
- Q4·3:17
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
WSH 58·NY 80
- Q4·3:17
Liberty Full timeout
WSH 58·NY 80
- Q4·3:20
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
WSH 58·NY 80
- Q4·3:22
Kiki Iriafen misses 6-foot two point shot
WSH 58·NY 80
- Q4·3:36
Sonia Citron enters the game for Lucy Olsen
·
WSH 58·NY 80
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
NY
Home
27-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-56
42
FG %
50
5-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-21
4-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-28
17
Assists
23
10
Turnovers
7
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27771
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
NY
45.7%
FG%
44.7
45.6%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶35.3%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶86.6
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.7
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4