Jul 23, 25sim 96
387
14(H)63
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9NY
DAL
8-22
7685
NY
19-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Dallas Wings, 85–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
17.1Game score
21
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
NY · top performer
Leonie Fiebich
F · #13
14.0Game score
14
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL8-22
7685
NY19-10
DAL8-22NY19-10
DAL
8-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 35 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 31 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 30 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15 | |
| 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 18 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 76 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 7 | ||
| DNP: M. Hines-Allen, T. Harris | ||||||||
NY
19-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 21 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | |
| 31 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | |
| 30 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +5 | |
| 11 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 85 | 35 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 8 | ||
| DNP: B. Stewart, N. Sabally, K. Burke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
48
20
Ast
25
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
Jul 29NY82@DAL92
NY82@DAL92Aug 5DAL76@NY85today
DAL76@NY85todayAug 8NY88@DAL77
NY88@DAL77Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:39
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 31 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
NYL. Fiebich
FGame leader · 29 min
14 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
NY beat DAL 85-76. L. Fiebich led with 14 PTS, 1 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 24-15 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST
GS 17
NYstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST
GS 50
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY2nd Quarter · 1:39 · 34-37
+7pp→ 77% WP
Stephanie Talbot · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)
DAL3rd Quarter · 7:39 · 41-39
+8pp→ 41% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · makes 23-foot three point shot (Paige Bueckers assists)
NY3rd Quarter · 1:34 · 49-56
+7pp→ 88% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 20 | 18 | 23 | 76 |
| NY | 24 | 13 | 23 | 25 | 85 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · NY won 3
15
24
Q1
Ogunbowale 5
Fiebich 6
20
13
Q2
Geiselsoder 5
Jones 6
18
23
Q3
Bueckers 7
Cloud 9
23
25
Q4
Jones 9
Talbot 10
DAL
NY
Shooting comparison
DAL
NY
37%
29-78
FG
48%
31-65
22%
6-27
3PT
50%
12-24
75%
12-16
FT
85%
11-13
Play-by-play · 376 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 76·NY 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 76·NY 85
- Q4·2.7
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
DAL 76·NY 85
- Q4·6.0
Diamond Miller misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 76·NY 85
- Q4·21.1
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·NY 85
- Q4·21.1
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
DAL 76·NY 84
- Q4·21.1
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·NY 84
- Q4·21.1
Diamond Miller enters the game for Haley Jones
· ·
DAL 76·NY 83
- Q4·21.1
Haley Jones loose ball foul
·
DAL 76·NY 83
- Q4·21.1
Liberty defensive team rebound
DAL 76·NY 83
- Q4·21.5
Aziaha James misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 76·NY 83
+1pp
- Q4·28.4
Wings timeout
DAL 76·NY 83
- Q4·28.4
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
DAL 76·NY 83
- Q4·28.4
Natasha Cloud out of bounds lost ball turnover
DAL 76·NY 83
−0.9pp
- Q4·35.2
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 3 of 3
DAL 76·NY 83
+1pp
- Q4·35.2
Grace Berger enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
DAL 75·NY 83
- Q4·35.2
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 2 of 3
DAL 75·NY 83
−0.8pp
- Q4·35.2
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 1 of 3
DAL 74·NY 83
- Q4·35.2
Sabrina Ionescu shooting foul
DAL 73·NY 83
−0.7pp
- Q4·42.2
Aziaha James offensive rebound
DAL 73·NY 83
- Q4·45.2
Haley Jones misses 14-foot jumper
·
DAL 73·NY 83
- Q4·59.3
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
DAL 73·NY 83
- Q4·1:02
Stephanie Talbot misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 73·NY 83
- Q4·1:25
Aziaha James makes driving layup (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
DAL 73·NY 83
- Q4·1:35
Emma Meesseman makes layup (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
DAL 71·NY 83
- Q4·1:39
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
DAL 71·NY 81
- Q4·1:42
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 71·NY 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:00
Leonie Fiebich makes 5-foot two point shot
DAL 71·NY 81
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:11
Paige Bueckers makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 71·NY 79
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:21
Natasha Cloud turnover
DAL 69·NY 79
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
NY
Home
29-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-65
37
FG %
48
6-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-24
12-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-13
20
Assists
25
7
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
NY
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.6%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
35.3%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
86.6
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.7
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4