Jul 13, 25sim 94
383
5(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LA
LA
6-13
8987
IND
9-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 89–87. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
18.6Game score
21
Pts
12
Reb
2
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
20.7Game score
23
Pts
12
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA6-13
8987
IND9-9
LA6-13IND9-9
LA
6-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 29 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6 | |
| 37 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 30 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 89 | 30 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 7 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, S. Feagin, S. Barker | ||||||||
IND
9-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 | |
| 32 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 31 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 12 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 87 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 9 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
49
22
Ast
22
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 26LA85@IND75
LA85@IND75Jul 5LA89@IND87today
LA89@IND87todayAug 6IND91@LA100
IND91@LA100Aug 30IND76@LA75
IND76@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 4.2
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 29 min
21 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 32 min
23 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LA beat IND 89-87. A. Stevens led with 21 PTS, 12 REB, 2 AST. Lexie Hull's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 63
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 4
INDstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 53
Bench(3)
15 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 1:31 · 85-87
+16pp→ 43% WP
Natasha Howard · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 30.1 · 88-87
+13pp→ 46% WP
Julie Allemand · bad pass (Aari McDonald steals)
LA4th Quarter · 4.2 · 88-87
+18pp→ 84% WP
Lexie Hull · misses 7-foot jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 21 | 21 | 28 | 19 | 89 |
| IND | 23 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 87 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · IND won 2
21
23
Q1
Stevens 7
Mitchell 8
21
22
Q2
Plum 8
Howard 6
28
24
Q3
Hamby 10
Howard 11
19
18
Q4
Jackson 7
Boston 6
LA
IND
Shooting comparison
LA
IND
49%
32-65
FG
49%
34-70
45%
10-22
3PT
35%
7-20
65%
15-23
FT
63%
12-19
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 89·IND 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 89·IND 87
−0.9pp
- Q4·0.1
Fever offensive team rebound
LA 89·IND 87
- Q4·0.1
Aliyah Boston misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
LA 89·IND 87
−5pp
- Q4·2.1
Lexie Hull enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
LA 89·IND 87
- Q4·2.1
Fever timeout
LA 89·IND 87
- Q4·2.1
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
LA 89·IND 87
−2pp
- Q4·3.1
Azura Stevens misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 89·IND 87
+5pp
- Q4·3.1
Natasha Howard enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
LA 89·IND 87
- Q4·3.1
Azura Stevens makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 89·IND 87
−0.7pp
- Q4·3.1
Sydney Colson enters the game for Aari McDonald
·
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·3.1
Aari McDonald personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−7pp
- Q4·3.1
Azura Stevens defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−6pp
- Q4·4.2
Lexie Hull misses 7-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−18pp
- Q4·7.1
Lexie Hull offensive rebound
LA 88·IND 87
+2pp
- Q4·10.1
Aari McDonald misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−14pp
- Q4·24.1
Mercedes Russell enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·24.1
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·24.1
Fever Full timeout
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·30.1
Julie Allemand bad pass (Aari McDonald steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 88·IND 87
+13pp
- Q4·41.0
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Mercedes Russell
·
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·41.0
Sparks Full timeout
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·41.0
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 88·IND 87
−4pp
- Q4·43.1
Aliyah Boston misses layupBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−11pp
- Q4·57.1
Mercedes Russell enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·57.1
Fever Full timeout
LA 88·IND 87
- Q4·58.0
Rickea Jackson makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 88·IND 87
−6pp
- Q4·1:11
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 86·IND 87
−3pp
- Q4·1:12
Kelsey Mitchell misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·IND 87
−9pp
- Q4·1:31
Rickea Jackson makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LA 86·IND 87
+9pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
IND
Home
32-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-70
49
FG %
49
10-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-20
15-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-19
22
Assists
22
7
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
IND
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.4%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
32.1%
91.6
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4