Jun 13, 25sim 94
1970
20(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4WSH
WSH
15-18
8884
IND
18-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 88–84. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
14.6Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
16.5Game score
20
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH15-18
8884
IND18-16
WSH15-18IND18-16
WSH
15-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | |
| 15 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 33 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 31 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +19 | |
| 28 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +7 | |
| 22 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 26 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 88 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Austin, J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
IND
18-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| 27 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 33 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 35 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 26 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 84 | 24 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 9 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Bibby, S. Colson, K. Lambert, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
45
20
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28IND77@WSH83
IND77@WSH83Jun 3WSH76@IND85
WSH76@IND85Aug 15WSH88@IND84today
WSH88@IND84todaySep 7IND94@WSH65
IND94@WSH65Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 7:38
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 31 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 27 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
WSH beat IND 88-84. S. Citron led with 21 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the 4th quarter (36pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 17
INDstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST
GS 44
Bench(3)
24 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 7:13 · 69-66
+14pp→ 59% WP
Stefanie Dolson · makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Jade Melbourne assists)
IND4th Quarter · 6:15 · 71-66
+13pp→ 52% WP
Emily Engstler · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 7:38 · 67-66
+36pp→ 61% WP
shot clock turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 88 |
| IND | 23 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 84 |
Period scoring
WSH won 3 · IND won 1
16
23
Q1
Iriafen 6
Howard 6
24
22
Q2
Citron 7
Timpson 9
22
19
Q3
Clark 8
Dantas 7
26
20
Q4
Citron 12
Boston 10
WSH
IND
Shooting comparison
WSH
IND
53%
29-55
FG
45%
33-73
47%
8-17
3PT
33%
7-21
85%
22-26
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 398 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 88·IND 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 88·IND 84
- Q4·0.7
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
WSH 88·IND 84
−1pp
- Q4·3.9
Kelsey Mitchell misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 88·IND 84
−2pp
- Q4·5.0
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
WSH 88·IND 84
- Q4·5.0
Fever timeout
WSH 88·IND 84
- Q4·5.0
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 88·IND 84
+2pp
- Q4·5.0
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 87·IND 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·5.0
Sophie Cunningham personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 86·IND 84
−6pp
- Q4·6.3
Aliyah Boston makes 2-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
WSH 86·IND 84
+1pp
- Q4·11.3
Kelsey Mitchell enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
WSH 86·IND 82
- Q4·11.3
Fever Full timeout
WSH 86·IND 82
- Q4·11.3
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 86·IND 82
+1pp
- Q4·11.3
Natasha Howard enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
WSH 85·IND 82
- Q4·11.3
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 85·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·11.3
Jade Melbourne misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 85·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·11.3
Sophie Cunningham personal take foul
WSH 85·IND 82
−4pp
- Q4·11.5
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 85·IND 82
−3pp
- Q4·13.8
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 85·IND 82
−10pp
- Q4·22.6
Madison Scott enters the game for Sug Sutton
·
WSH 85·IND 82
- Q4·22.6
Fever Full timeout
WSH 85·IND 82
−5pp
- Q4·22.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
WSH 85·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·23.8
Kiki Iriafen misses driving layup
WSH 85·IND 82
+4pp
- Q4·38.5
Fever offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 85·IND 82
+8pp
- Q4·38.5
Lexie Hull misses 4-foot two point shot
WSH 85·IND 82
−3pp
- Q4·38.5
Mystics timeout
WSH 85·IND 82
- Q4·38.5
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 85·IND 82
−8pp
- Q4·38.5
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 85·IND 81
+2pp
- Q4·38.5
Kiki Iriafen loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 85·IND 80
+10pp
- Q4·46.9
Emily Engstler enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
WSH 85·IND 80
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
IND
Home
29-55
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-73
53
FG %
45
8-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-21
22-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
20
Assists
21
13
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
IND
45.7%
FG%
44.7
45.4%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶32.1%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4