Sep 9, 25sim 96
1666
9(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2NY
CON
9-28
7981
NY
23-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Connecticut Sun, 81–79. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Aneesah Morrow
F · #24
17.4Game score
18
Pts
15
Reb
0
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
21.7Game score
18
Pts
11
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON9-28
7981
NY23-15
CON9-28NY23-15
CON
9-28
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 33 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 36 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 31 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | |
| Team | 79 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 12 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, R. Marshall, L. Allen | ||||||||
NY
23-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
USG%.27771 ORB%.05671 DRB%.24771 | ||||||||
| 31 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 33 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 30 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 34 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +7 | |
| 21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| Team | 81 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, N. Sabally, N. Cloud | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
50
16
Ast
25
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
Jun 1CON52@NY100
CON52@NY100Aug 1NY62@CON78
NY62@CON78Aug 3NY87@CON78
NY87@CON78Aug 25CON79@NY81today
CON79@NY81todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 23.6
CONA. Morrow
FGame leader · 26 min
18 PTS · 15 REB · 0 AST
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 33 min
18 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
NY beat CON 81-79. J. Jones led with 18 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. NY outscored the other side 27-15 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST
GS 36
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 17
NYstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 61
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 6:17 · 66-65
+13pp→ 68% WP
Marina Mabrey · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 23.6 · 78-81
+16pp→ 27% WP
Aaliyah Edwards · makes free throw 1 of 2
NY4th Quarter · 3.6 · 79-81
+11pp→ 94% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · blocks Leila Lacan 's 5-foot two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 15 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 79 |
| NY | 27 | 10 | 21 | 23 | 81 |
Period scoring
CON won 2 · NY won 2
15
27
Q1
Mabrey 6
Jones 6
21
10
Q2
Lacan 6
Stewart 6
23
21
Q3
Morrow 12
Ionescu 5
20
23
Q4
Lacan 8
Jones 5
CON
NY
Shooting comparison
CON
NY
42%
30-71
FG
50%
29-58
48%
10-21
3PT
39%
7-18
64%
9-14
FT
84%
16-19
Play-by-play · 370 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 79·NY 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 79·NY 81
+3pp
- Q4·2.2
Liberty defensive team rebound
CON 79·NY 81
+3pp
- Q4·3.6
Sabrina Ionescu blocks Leila Lacan 's 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·NY 81
+11pp
- Q4·7.2
Breanna Stewart bad pass (Leila Lacan steals)
·
CON 79·NY 81
+2pp
- Q4·23.6
Liberty Full timeout
CON 79·NY 81
- Q4·23.6
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 79·NY 81
+9pp
- Q4·23.6
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 78·NY 81
−16pp
- Q4·23.6
Sun delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
CON 77·NY 81
+5pp
- Q4·23.6
Jonquel Jones shooting foul
CON 77·NY 81
−3pp
- Q4·31.7
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
CON 77·NY 81
−1pp
- Q4·35.5
Sabrina Ionescu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 77·NY 81
−3pp
- Q4·51.9
Liberty timeout
CON 77·NY 81
- Q4·52.3
Leila Lacan makes 15-foot jumper (Bria Hartley assists)
·
CON 77·NY 81
−4pp
- Q4·53.7
Sun Full timeout
CON 75·NY 81
- Q4·53.7
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 75·NY 81
−3pp
- Q4·54.6
Tina Charles misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 75·NY 81
+6pp
- Q4·54.6
Tina Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 75·NY 81
−1pp
- Q4·54.6
Breanna Stewart personal foul
CON 74·NY 81
−5pp
- Q4·57.7
Bria Hartley defensive rebound
CON 74·NY 81
- Q4·1:01
Kennedy Burke misses driving layup
CON 74·NY 81
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:25
Leila Lacan makes 3-foot two point shot
CON 74·NY 81
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:29
Jonquel Jones makes tip shot
CON 72·NY 81
+1pp
- Q4·1:29
Jonquel Jones offensive rebound
CON 72·NY 79
+2pp
- Q4·1:32
Breanna Stewart misses layup
CON 72·NY 79
−1pp
- Q4·1:47
Tina Charles makes 5-foot hook shot (Leila Lacan assists)
·
CON 72·NY 79
−1pp
- Q4·1:58
Sun Full timeout
CON 70·NY 79
- Q4·1:58
Leonie Fiebich makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
CON 70·NY 79
+4pp
- Q4·2:18
Tina Charles makes 5-foot layup (Leila Lacan assists)
·
CON 70·NY 76
−2pp
- Q4·2:33
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 68·NY 76
−1pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
NY
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-58
42
FG %
50
10-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-18
9-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-19
16
Assists
25
12
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort- Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27771
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Jonquel JonesNY12.6± 5.0low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
NY
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶45.6%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶35.3%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶86.6
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.7
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4