Aug 10, 25sim 97
1970
5(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1DAL
DAL
9-24
8180
IND
18-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 81–80. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Maddy Siegrist
F · #20
19.9Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
17.5Game score
24
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL9-24
8180
IND18-15
DAL9-24IND18-15
DAL
9-24
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 35 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 27 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 81 | 30 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: A. Ogunbowale, T. Harris | ||||||||
IND
18-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +8 | |
| 31 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| 36 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| 35 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 25 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
| 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -15 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| Team | 80 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 17 | ||
| DNP: S. Colson, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
44
25
Ast
15
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
Jun 27IND94@DAL86
IND94@DAL86Jul 13DAL83@IND102
DAL83@IND102Aug 1IND88@DAL78
IND88@DAL78Aug 12DAL81@IND80today
DAL81@IND80todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 1.7
DALM. Siegrist
FGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 36 min
24 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
DAL beat IND 81-80. M. Siegrist led with 22 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. DAL outscored the other side 25-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST
GS 29
Bench(5)
36 PTS · 13 REB · 13 AST
GS 31
INDstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 32 REB · 10 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
16 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND4th Quarter · 2:46 · 78-73
+13pp→ 24% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes free throw 1 of 3
DAL4th Quarter · 2:46 · 78-74
+13pp→ 81% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · misses free throw 3 of 3
DAL4th Quarter · 1:08 · 81-78
+12pp→ 78% WP
Lexie Hull · offensive foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 23 | 19 | 25 | 14 | 81 |
| IND | 15 | 27 | 13 | 25 | 80 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · IND won 2
23
15
Q1
Yueru 8
Bibby 6
19
27
Q2
Siegrist 7
Mitchell 10
25
13
Q3
Siegrist 5
Boston 6
14
25
Q4
Yueru 5
Mitchell 12
DAL
IND
Shooting comparison
DAL
IND
42%
30-71
FG
44%
28-63
31%
8-26
3PT
41%
9-22
87%
13-15
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 81·IND 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 81·IND 80
−1pp
- Q4·0.2
Fever offensive team rebound
DAL 81·IND 80
- Q4·0.2
Kelsey Mitchell misses 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 80
−9pp
- Q4·1.7
Fever timeoutBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 80
−45pp
- Q4·11.3
Natasha Howard defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 80
+5pp
- Q4·14.0
Paige Bueckers misses 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 80
+7pp
- Q4·33.4
Wings Full timeout
DAL 81·IND 80
- Q4·33.4
Kelsey Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 80
+8pp
- Q4·56.5
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
DAL 81·IND 78
+3pp
- Q4·59.9
Paige Bueckers misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 78
+9pp
- Q4·1:08
Wings Full timeout
DAL 81·IND 78
- Q4·1:08
Lexie Hull turnover
DAL 81·IND 78
- Q4·1:08
Lexie Hull offensive foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 78
−12pp
- Q4·1:23
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
DAL 81·IND 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:27
Li Yueru misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 78
+8pp
- Q4·1:44
Natasha Howard makes 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 78
+6pp
- Q4·2:00
Li Yueru steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 76
+6pp
- Q4·2:08
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 76
−5pp
- Q4·2:10
Li Yueru misses layup
DAL 81·IND 76
+4pp
- Q4·2:24
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 76
−5pp
- Q4·2:24
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 81·IND 75
+1pp
- Q4·2:24
JJ Quinerly personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·IND 74
+7pp
- Q4·2:31
Li Yueru makes free throw 1 of 1
DAL 81·IND 74
−4pp
- Q4·2:31
(02:31) [Fever] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Fever] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·IND 74
+7pp
- Q4·2:31
Fever Full timeout
DAL 80·IND 74
- Q4·2:31
Aliyah Boston shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·IND 74
−7pp
- Q4·2:31
Li Yueru makes layup (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 80·IND 74
−6pp
- Q4·2:45
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
DAL 78·IND 74
- Q4·2:46
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
DAL 78·IND 74
−13pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-63
42
FG %
44
8-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-22
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
25
Assists
15
14
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
IND
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.4%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
32.1%
88.9
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
22.3
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4