WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+19LV

DAL

9-26

87106

21-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASun, Aug 17FinalSeriesLV wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Dallas Wings, 106–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Maddy Siegrist

F · #20

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

32.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

DAL9-26

106

LV21-14

DAL9-26LV21-14

DAL

9-26

	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	+/-
M. Siegrist★F · #20	33	23	6	1	2	2	0	-12
L. Geiselsoder★C · #18	23	7	3	3	0	0	1	-12
G. Berger★G · #9	18	6	2	4	1	0	1	+1
P. Bueckers★G · #5	29	18	5	4	1	0	2	-17
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786
H. Jones★G · #30	20	7	5	2	0	0	1	-13
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	21	9	5	4	0	0	4	-11
D. MillerF · #1	11	4	2	0	0	0	0	-5
A. JamesG · #10	22	9	8	4	1	0	2	-14
J. QuinerlyG · #11	24	4	1	4	0	0	1	-12
Team		87	37	26	5	2	12
DNP: L. Yueru, A. Ogunbowale, T. Harris

21-14

106

	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	+/-
N. Smith★F · #3	22	14	4	1	0	0	0	+17
K. Bell★F · #1	28	18	6	1	1	0	0	+16
A. Wilson★C · #22	31	34	8	1	2	3	1	+12
C. Gray★G · #12	32	10	2	14	1	0	1	+22
J. Young★G · #0	29	8	3	5	2	0	4	+11
J. LoydG · #24	25	12	1	3	1	0	1	+10
D. EvansG · #11	16	6	1	3	1	0	1	+5
A. NyeG · #13	10	4	0	0	1	0	0	+5

Team		106	28	28	9	3	8

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LV wins series 4-0

Jun 14

DAL84@

LV88

Jul 17

LV90@

DAL86

Jul 27

LV106@

DAL80

Aug 17

DAL87@

LV106today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 2:51

DAL

M. Siegrist

Game leader · 33 min

23 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

A. Wilson

Game leader · 31 min30+ point game

34 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

LV beat DAL 106-87. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 51

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 17

LVstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV1st Quarter · 2:51 · 20-20

+6pp→ 66% WP

Kierstan Bell · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	27	17	22	21	87
LV	31	24	26	25	106

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · LV won 4

Siegrist 9

Wilson 9

Bueckers 7

Gray 10

Siegrist 8

Wilson 14

Hines-Allen 5

Smith 10

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

49%

38-78

50%

34-68

18%

3-17

3PT

53%

18-34

89%

8-9

87%

20-23

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·9.2
Dana Evans defensive rebound
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·12.5
JJ Quinerly misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·17.7
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·22.0
Aaliyah Nye misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·37.7
Grace Berger makes driving layup
DAL 87·LV 106
Q4·44.9
Dana Evans makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
·
DAL 85·LV 106
Q4·1:05
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 1
DAL 85·LV 103
Q4·1:05
Megan Gustafson shooting foul
DAL 84·LV 103
Q4·1:05
Myisha Hines-Allen makes driving layup (Grace Berger assists)
·
DAL 84·LV 103
Q4·1:11
Aaliyah Nye makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 82·LV 103
Q4·1:11
Aaliyah Nye makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 82·LV 102
Q4·1:11
Diamond Miller shooting foul
DAL 82·LV 101
Q4·1:33
Grace Berger makes 9-foot running pullup jump shot (Aziaha James assists)
·
DAL 82·LV 101
Q4·1:39
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 80·LV 101
Q4·1:42
Jewell Loyd misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 80·LV 101
Q4·2:02
Myisha Hines-Allen makes 4-foot layup (JJ Quinerly assists)
·
DAL 80·LV 101
Q4·2:10
Jewell Loyd enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:10
Dana Evans enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:10
Megan Gustafson enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:10
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:10
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Jackie Young
·
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:10
(02:10) [Wings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:11
Jackie Young personal foul
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:14
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:15
Aziaha James misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:18
Aziaha James offensive rebound
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:22
JJ Quinerly misses 8-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 78·LV 101
Q4·2:35
Aziaha James enters the game for Haley Jones
·
DAL 78·LV 101

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

38-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-68

FG %

3-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-34

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-23

Assists

Turnovers

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort

Paige BueckersDAL · G
TS%.62099+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
23.5± 12.0low
Paige BueckersDAL
18.6± 8.3low
Chennedy CarterLV
17.4± 9.2low

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
10.7± 6.4low
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.2± 4.5low
A'ja WilsonLV
6.9± 5.6low

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.3± 2.4low
Jessica ShepardDAL
6.0± 4.9low
Paige BueckersDAL
5.3± 3.3low

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.5low
NaLyssa SmithLV
1.1± 1.4low
Chelsea GrayLV
1.0± 1.2low

Steals

Aziaha JamesDAL
1.5± 1.8low
Chennedy CarterLV
1.1± 1.3low
Alanna SmithDAL
1.0± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

league avg

46.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

49.7%

37.3%

3PT %

◀

32.6

34.9%

88.9

PPG

85.4

▶

91.0

23.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

22.1

10.3

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop