Jul 12, 25sim 95
1865
14(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16SEA
CON
2-14
8197
SEA
10-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Connecticut Sun, 97–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Aneesah Morrow
F · #24
17.6Game score
20
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
20.4Game score
24
Pts
1
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON2-14
8197
SEA10-6
CON2-14SEA10-6
CON
2-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -20 | |
| 27 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | |
| 31 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 28 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 27 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| Team | 81 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey | ||||||||
SEA
10-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +25 | |
| 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +14 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +19 | |
| 28 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +23 | |
| 31 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +25 | |
| 17 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 20 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 24 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 34 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
49
21
Ast
27
Season series
SEA wins series 3-1
Jun 28CON81@SEA97today
CON81@SEA97todayJul 9SEA83@CON93
SEA83@CON93Jul 12CON65@SEA79
CON65@SEA79Jul 28SEA101@CON85
SEA101@CON85Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 6:17
CONA. Morrow
FGame leader · 27 min
20 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 28 min
24 PTS · 1 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
SEA beat CON 97-81. S. Diggins led with 24 PTS, 1 REB, 5 AST. SEA outscored the other side 30-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 17 REB · 16 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
SEAstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON1st Quarter · 6:17 · 7-8
+16pp→ 17% WP
Ezi Magbegor · shooting foul
CON1st Quarter · 6:17 · 7-8
+15pp→ 16% WP
Tina Charles · misses free throw 1 of 2
CON1st Quarter · 6:17 · 8-8
+15pp→ 15% WP
Zia Cooke · enters the game for Gabby Williams
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 19 | 19 | 17 | 26 | 81 |
| SEA | 24 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 97 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · SEA won 3
19
24
Q1
Charles 7
Diggins 8
19
28
Q2
Morrow 7
Williams 7
17
30
Q3
Hartley 5
Diggins 108
26
15
Q4
Morrow 8
Cooke 5
CON
SEA
Shooting comparison
CON
SEA
48%
30-63
FG
49%
34-69
54%
7-13
3PT
32%
9-28
67%
14-21
FT
87%
20-23
Play-by-play · 385 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·0.0
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·4.1
Erica Wheeler misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·27.2
Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·29.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·29.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 81·SEA 97
- Q4·29.1
Dominique Malonga personal foul
CON 80·SEA 97
- Q4·44.2
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·SEA 97
- Q4·44.2
Storm offensive team rebound
CON 80·SEA 96
- Q4·44.2
Dominique Malonga misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·SEA 96
- Q4·44.2
(00:44.9) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CON 80·SEA 96
- Q4·44.2
Olivia Nelson-Ododa shooting foul
CON 80·SEA 96
- Q4·1:03
Bria Hartley makes 25-foot three pointer (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
CON 80·SEA 96
- Q4·1:12
Erica Wheeler lost ball turnover (Aneesah Morrow steals)
·
CON 77·SEA 96
- Q4·1:24
Erica Wheeler lane violation
CON 77·SEA 96
- Q4·1:24
Bria Hartley makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 77·SEA 96
- Q4·1:24
Bria Hartley makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 76·SEA 96
- Q4·1:24
Erica Wheeler personal foul
CON 75·SEA 96
- Q4·1:35
Mackenzie Holmes makes 3-foot layup (Erica Wheeler assists)
·
CON 75·SEA 96
- Q4·1:47
Aneesah Morrow makes 11-foot jumper (Bria Hartley assists)
·
CON 75·SEA 94
- Q4·1:57
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
CON 73·SEA 94
- Q4·2:01
Alysha Clark misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 73·SEA 94
- Q4·2:13
Alysha Clark offensive rebound
CON 73·SEA 94
- Q4·2:14
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
CON 73·SEA 94
- Q4·2:35
Aneesah Morrow makes driving layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
CON 73·SEA 94
- Q4·2:52
Zia Cooke makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mackenzie Holmes assists)
·
CON 71·SEA 94
- Q4·3:14
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 71·SEA 91
- Q4·3:14
Erica Wheeler shooting foul
CON 70·SEA 91
- Q4·3:14
Saniya Rivers makes 17-foot running pullup jump shot (Bria Hartley assists)
·
CON 70·SEA 91
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
30-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-69
48
FG %
49
7-13
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-28
14-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-23
21
Assists
27
15
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
SEA
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶41.6%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.1%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶79.5
17.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6