Aug 10, 25sim 97
1970
5(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14SEA
CON
3-17
6579
SEA
13-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Connecticut Sun, 79–65.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
C · #10
14.0Game score
10
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
17.7Game score
18
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON3-17
6579
SEA13-8
CON3-17SEA13-8
CON
3-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | |
| 34 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9 | |
| 30 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 35 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 32 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -19 | |
| Team | 65 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 15 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey, J. Brown | ||||||||
SEA
13-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +12 | |
| 38 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 30 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +12 | |
| 26 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| 10 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 79 | 28 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
45
11
Ast
22
Season series
SEA wins series 3-1
Jun 28CON81@SEA97
CON81@SEA97Jul 9SEA83@CON93
SEA83@CON93Jul 12CON65@SEA79today
CON65@SEA79todayJul 28SEA101@CON85
SEA101@CON85Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 6:57
CONO. Nelson-Ododa
CGame leader · 34 min
10 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 38 min
18 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
SEA beat CON 79-65. G. Williams led with 18 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST. SEA outscored the other side 24-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 26 REB · 10 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
GS 4
SEAstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 16 REB · 21 AST
GS 65
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 6:57 · 58-59
+19pp→ 53% WP
Tiffany Mitchell · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 6:42 · 60-60
+12pp→ 49% WP
Skylar Diggins · misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA4th Quarter · 6:10 · 62-63
+13pp→ 58% WP
Gabby Williams · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 16 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 65 |
| SEA | 10 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 79 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · SEA won 3
16
10
Q1
Charles 8
Diggins 5
17
21
Q2
Nelson-Ododa 6
Magbegor 6
19
24
Q3
Rivers 8
Ogwumike 10
13
24
Q4
Charles 6
Williams 7
CON
SEA
Shooting comparison
CON
SEA
36%
21-58
FG
45%
29-64
19%
3-16
3PT
25%
6-24
91%
20-22
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 359 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·18.1
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Zia Cooke enters the game for Gabby Williams
·
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Nneka Ogwumike
·
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 65·SEA 79
- Q4·22.0
Erica Wheeler personal take foul
CON 64·SEA 79
- Q4·22.1
Saniya Rivers defensive rebound
CON 64·SEA 79
- Q4·26.0
Nneka Ogwumike misses 26-foot three point jumper
CON 64·SEA 79
- Q4·42.1
Bria Hartley bad pass (Ezi Magbegor steals)
·
CON 64·SEA 79
- Q4·56.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 64·SEA 79
- Q4·56.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 64·SEA 78
- Q4·56.1
Leila Lacan personal foul
CON 64·SEA 77
- Q4·1:00
Gabby Williams makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
CON 64·SEA 77
- Q4·1:00
Gabby Williams makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
CON 64·SEA 76
- Q4·1:00
(01:00) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:00
Bria Hartley flagrant foul type 1
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:14
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:18
Tina Charles misses layup
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:21
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:24
Saniya Rivers misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 64·SEA 75
+1pp
- Q4·1:36
Gabby Williams personal foul
CON 64·SEA 75
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:47
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·1:52
Skylar Diggins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·2:13
(02:13) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·2:13
Bria Hartley personal foul
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·2:16
Saniya Rivers bad pass (Nneka Ogwumike steals)
·
CON 64·SEA 75
- Q4·2:28
Nneka Ogwumike makes tip shot
CON 64·SEA 75
+0.7pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
21-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-64
36
FG %
45
3-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-24
20-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
11
Assists
22
15
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
SEA
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶41.6%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.1%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶79.5
17.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6