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FINAL+16ATL
NY

NY

22-15

6278
ATL

ATL

24-13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASat, Aug 23FinalSeriestied 2-2

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off New York Liberty, 78–62.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

NY
Kennedy Burke

Kennedy Burke

G · #22

11.6Game score

13

Pts

5

Reb

1

Ast

ATL · top performer

ATL
Brionna Jones

Brionna Jones

F · #24

16.1Game score

17

Pts

8

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
62
78
NY22-15ATL24-13
NY

NY

22-15

62
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
L. FiebichL. Fiebich★F · #13
24823000-21
J. JonesJ. Jones★C · #35
291181014-9
E. MeessemanE. Meesseman★C · #33
261044002-23
N. CloudN. Cloud★G · #9
25731213-19
M. JohannesM. Johannes★G · #23
24735011-8
S. TalbotS. TalbotF · #6
22223001-3
R. GardnerR. GardnerG · #7
22461002+3
K. BurkeK. BurkeG · #22
2713510000
Team6233192313
ATL

ATL

24-13

78
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. JonesB. Jones★F · #24
251782100+19
N. HillmonN. Hillmon★F · #0
271184001+19
A. GrayA. Gray★G · #15
321942001+9
R. HowardR. Howard★G · #10
37986200+20
T. PaopaoT. Paopao★G · #2
24913101+10
N. CoffeyN. CoffeyF · #12
13221001-3
B. GrinerB. GrinerC · #42
15421001-3
M. CaldwellM. CaldwellG · #33
25770200+15
Team784220605

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

41

FG %

39

19

Ast

20

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 17ATLATL81@NYNY86
Jun 29NYNY81@ATLATL90
Jul 13ATLATL72@NYNY79
Aug 23NYNY62@ATLATL78today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 5:47

NYNY
K. Burke

K. Burke

G

Game leader · 27 min

13 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

ATLATL
B. Jones

B. Jones

F

Game leader · 25 min

17 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

ATL beat NY 78-62. B. Jones led with 17 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 24-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
NYNYstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 25

Bench(3)

19 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 17

ATLATLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

13 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATL1st Quarter · 5:47 · 4-10
+6pp→ 65% WP

Te-Hina Paopao · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
NY1415151862
ATL2424161478

Period scoring

NY won 1 · ATL won 3

14
24

Q1

Jones 6

Gray 8

15
24

Q2

Cloud 5

Hillmon 7

15
16

Q3

Fiebich 4

Jones 6

18
14

Q4

Johannes 7

Gray 5

NY
ATL

Shooting comparison

NY
ATL

41%

24-58

FG

39%

30-76

27%

6-22

3PT

26%

10-38

80%

8-10

FT

67%

8-12

Play-by-play · 361 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    NY 62·ATL 78

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    NY 62·ATL 78

  3. Q4·16.1

    Kennedy Burke makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rebekah Gardner assists)

    ·

    NY 62·ATL 78

  4. Q4·17.6

    Rebekah Gardner offensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  5. Q4·20.9

    Marine Johannes misses driving floating jump shot

    NY 59·ATL 78

  6. Q4·28.5

    Marine Johannes defensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  7. Q4·32.5

    Sika Kone misses 24-foot three point jumper

    NY 59·ATL 78

  8. Q4·39.7

    Sika Kone enters the game for Maya Caldwell

    ·

    NY 59·ATL 78

  9. Q4·39.7

    Dream timeout

    NY 59·ATL 78

  10. Q4·39.7

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  11. Q4·43.1

    Marine Johannes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot

    NY 59·ATL 78

  12. Q4·51.6

    Kennedy Burke defensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  13. Q4·54.7

    Nia Coffey misses 24-foot three point jumper

    NY 59·ATL 78

  14. Q4·1:01

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  15. Q4·1:05

    Kennedy Burke misses running pullup jump shot

    NY 59·ATL 78

  16. Q4·1:09

    Rebekah Gardner defensive rebound

    NY 59·ATL 78

  17. Q4·1:13

    Nia Coffey misses 23-foot three point jumper

    NY 59·ATL 78

  18. Q4·1:21

    Rebekah Gardner makes two point shot (Emma Meesseman assists)

    ·

    NY 59·ATL 78

  19. Q4·1:39

    Brittney Griner makes layup (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough assists)

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 78

  20. Q4·1:55

    Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Leonie Fiebich

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  21. Q4·1:55

    Nia Coffey enters the game for Allisha Gray

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  22. Q4·1:55

    Brittney Griner enters the game for Brionna Jones

    · ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  23. Q4·1:55

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  24. Q4·1:55

    Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  25. Q4·1:55

    Leonie Fiebich personal foul

    NY 57·ATL 76

  26. Q4·2:14

    Marine Johannes makes driving layup (Emma Meesseman assists)

    ·

    NY 57·ATL 76

  27. Q4·2:29

    Allisha Gray makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Rhyne Howard assists)

    ·

    NY 55·ATL 76

  28. Q4·2:54

    Emma Meesseman makes 11-foot jumper (Stephanie Talbot assists)

    ·

    NY 55·ATL 74

  29. Q4·3:10

    Brionna Jones makes tip shot

    ·

    NY 53·ATL 74

  30. Q4·3:11

    Brionna Jones offensive rebound

    ·

    NY 53·ATL 72

Team stats

NY

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

24-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-76

41

FG %

39

6-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-38

8-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-12

19

Assists

20

13

Turnovers

5

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · NY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

100

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Breanna StewartNY
    17.3± 11.0low
  • Allisha GrayATL
    16.8± 11.4low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    13.8± 9.6low

Rebounds

  • Angel ReeseATL
    9.8± 5.0low
  • Breanna StewartNY
    8.2± 2.4low
  • Jonquel JonesNY
    8.0± 3.1low

Assists

  • Jordin CanadaATL
    5.6± 4.7low
  • Marine JohannesNY
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    3.8± 3.1low

Blocks

  • Jonquel JonesNY
    1.2± 1.9low
  • Breanna StewartNY
    1.0± 1.7low
  • Angel ReeseATL
    0.8± 1.3low

Steals

  • Rhyne HowardATL
    2.3± 2.6low
  • Jordin CanadaATL
    1.7± 3.2low
  • Marine JohannesNY
    1.7± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

NY

NY

league avg

ATL

ATL

45.9%

FG%

◀

44.9

43.5%

35.8%

3PT %

◀

33.0

31.7%

88.0

PPG

◀

86.0

83.5

22.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop