Sep 14, 25sim 91
568
20(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4ATL
ATL
15-10
9086
MIN
22-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 90–86. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brittney Griner
C · #42
18.0Game score
22
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
32.5Game score
32
Pts
8
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL15-10
9086
MIN22-5
ATL15-10MIN22-5
ATL
15-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 30 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 29 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 29 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 22 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| Team | 90 | 27 | 22 | 12 | 0 | 16 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, R. Howard | ||||||||
MIN
22-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 31 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -14 | |
| 37 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 34 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 13 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 86 | 22 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 16 | ||
| DNP: A. Kosu, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
56
22
Ast
28
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jun 27MIN96@ATL92
MIN96@ATL92Jul 27ATL90@MIN86today
ATL90@MIN86todayAug 21MIN73@ATL75
MIN73@ATL75Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 34.1
ATLB. Griner
CGame leader · 30 min
22 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
ATL beat MIN 90-86. B. Griner led with 22 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 24-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST
GS 23
MINstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 17 REB · 22 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL2nd Quarter · 5:48 · 34-24
+10pp→ 73% WP
Alanna Smith · traveling
ATL3rd Quarter · 34.1 · 59-52
+21pp→ 83% WP
Jordin Canada · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL4th Quarter · 9:42 · 63-54
+10pp→ 86% WP
Te-Hina Paopao · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 22 | 24 | 14 | 30 | 90 |
| MIN | 19 | 13 | 22 | 32 | 86 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · MIN won 2
22
19
Q1
Jones 5
Smith 5
24
13
Q2
Griner 13
Collier 7
14
22
Q3
Canada 7
Collier 8
30
32
Q4
Walker-Kimbrough 9
Collier 13
ATL
MIN
Shooting comparison
ATL
MIN
52%
34-65
FG
56%
37-66
44%
8-18
3PT
39%
7-18
82%
14-17
FT
63%
5-8
Play-by-play · 369 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 90·MIN 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 90·MIN 86
- Q4·0.0
Lynx offensive team rebound
ATL 90·MIN 86
- Q4·0.2
Natisha Hiedeman misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 90·MIN 86
−3pp
- Q4·6.0
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
ATL 90·MIN 86
−0.6pp
- Q4·7.0
Jordin Canada misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 90·MIN 86
+4pp
- Q4·7.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 90·MIN 86
- Q4·7.0
Natisha Hiedeman personal take foul
ATL 89·MIN 86
−3pp
- Q4·8.0
Dream timeout
ATL 89·MIN 86
−2pp
- Q4·11.1
Napheesa Collier makes 11-foot two point shot (Kayla McBride assists)
·
ATL 89·MIN 86
- Q4·20.1
Allisha Gray lost ball turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
·
ATL 89·MIN 84
- Q4·21.0
Allisha Gray vs. Courtney Williams (Kayla McBride gains possession)
· ·
ATL 89·MIN 84
+3pp
- Q4·23.2
Allisha Gray vs. Kayla McBride (Allisha Gray gains possession)
·
ATL 89·MIN 84
- Q4·23.2
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 89·MIN 84
- Q4·24.2
Brittney Griner enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 89·MIN 84
- Q4·24.2
Dream Full timeout
ATL 89·MIN 84
- Q4·24.2
Natisha Hiedeman makes 28-foot three point jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)
·
ATL 89·MIN 84
+2pp
- Q4·28.2
Bridget Carleton offensive rebound
ATL 89·MIN 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·30.1
Napheesa Collier misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 89·MIN 81
−0.8pp
- Q4·35.0
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
ATL 89·MIN 81
- Q4·35.0
Lynx Full timeout
ATL 89·MIN 81
- Q4·35.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 89·MIN 81
+0.8pp
- Q4·35.0
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 88·MIN 81
- Q4·35.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 88·MIN 81
- Q4·35.0
Bridget Carleton personal take foul
ATL 87·MIN 81
- Q4·38.1
Napheesa Collier personal take foul
ATL 87·MIN 81
−2pp
- Q4·41.1
Brittney Griner enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 87·MIN 81
- Q4·41.1
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 87·MIN 81
−1pp
- Q4·44.1
Napheesa Collier misses two point shot
ATL 87·MIN 81
−3pp
- Q4·51.1
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 87·MIN 81
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
34-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-66
52
FG %
56
8-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-18
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-8
22
Assists
28
16
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
MIN
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4