Jul 16, 25sim 92
1166
8(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7MIN
NY
17-9
93100
MIN
23-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off New York Liberty, 100–93.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
25.2Game score
31
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
26.8Game score
30
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY17-9
93100
MIN23-5
NY17-9MIN23-5
NY
17-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 29 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | |
| 32 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 31 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 33 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| 17 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 18 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 93 | 31 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: B. Stewart, N. Sabally, K. Burke, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
MIN
23-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 30 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -7 | |
| 35 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +12 | |
| 36 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +6 | |
| 33 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 17 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 11 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 100 | 41 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 10 | ||
| DNP: A. Kosu, Y. Anderson, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
49
23
Ast
28
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 31NY93@MIN100today
NY93@MIN100todayAug 10MIN83@NY71
MIN83@NY71Aug 16NY80@MIN86
NY80@MIN86Aug 19MIN75@NY85
MIN75@NY85Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:00
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 35 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat NY 100-93. N. Collier paced them with 30 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST
GS 61
Bench(3)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
MINstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 32 REB · 24 AST
GS 74
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 4:51 · 16-10
+8pp→ 44% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · shooting foul
MIN2nd Quarter · 5:00 · 36-38
+8pp→ 60% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
NY3rd Quarter · 6:59 · 47-54
+8pp→ 23% WP
Sabrina Ionescu de · fensive rebound
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 24 | 18 | 20 | 31 | 93 |
| MIN | 24 | 27 | 17 | 32 | 100 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · MIN won 2
24
24
Q1
Johannes 8
Smith 7
18
27
Q2
Cloud 8
Collier 13
20
17
Q3
Ionescu 7
McBride 8
31
32
Q4
Ionescu 14
Hiedeman 8
NY
MIN
Shooting comparison
NY
MIN
49%
35-72
FG
49%
36-73
36%
10-28
3PT
48%
15-31
72%
13-18
FT
68%
13-19
Play-by-play · 380 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 93·MIN 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 93·MIN 100
- Q4·15.4
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 93·MIN 100
+0.5pp
- Q4·15.4
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 92·MIN 100
- Q4·15.4
Alanna Smith shooting foul
NY 91·MIN 100
- Q4·21.2
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 91·MIN 100
- Q4·21.2
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 91·MIN 99
- Q4·21.2
Sabrina Ionescu personal take foul
NY 91·MIN 98
- Q4·26.2
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
NY 91·MIN 98
- Q4·30.1
Natasha Cloud misses two point shot
NY 91·MIN 98
+1pp
- Q4·33.2
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
NY 91·MIN 98
- Q4·38.0
Kayla McBride misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 91·MIN 98
−2pp
- Q4·38.0
Marine Johannes enters the game for Stephanie Talbot
·
NY 91·MIN 98
- Q4·38.0
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 91·MIN 98
- Q4·38.0
Stephanie Talbot personal take foul
NY 91·MIN 97
+1pp
- Q4·40.1
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
NY 91·MIN 97
- Q4·40.1
Lynx timeout
NY 91·MIN 97
- Q4·40.7
Sabrina Ionescu makes 23-foot jump bank shot (Jonquel Jones assists)
·
NY 91·MIN 97
−1pp
- Q4·45.2
Leonie Fiebich enters the game for Isabelle Harrison
·
NY 88·MIN 97
- Q4·45.2
Liberty timeout
NY 88·MIN 97
- Q4·45.2
Courtney Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 88·MIN 97
- Q4·45.2
Courtney Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 88·MIN 96
- Q4·45.2
Natasha Cloud personal take foul
NY 88·MIN 95
+0.7pp
- Q4·45.5
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
NY 88·MIN 95
+0.5pp
- Q4·48.2
Marine Johannes misses 22-foot three point jumper
NY 88·MIN 95
+1pp
- Q4·50.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 88·MIN 95
- Q4·50.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 88·MIN 95
−1pp
- Q4·50.1
Isabelle Harrison shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 88·MIN 94
+5pp
- Q4·50.1
Napheesa Collier makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 88·MIN 94
+7pp
- Q4·1:02
Isabelle Harrison makes layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 88·MIN 92
−5pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
35-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-73
49
FG %
49
10-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-31
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-19
23
Assists
28
9
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
MIN
45.9%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
35.3%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.3
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4