Jun 17, 25sim 93
2081
9(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8PHX
PHX
10-4
8981
NY
10-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into New York Liberty and beat them, 89–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
24.2Game score
18
Pts
15
Reb
7
Ast
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
26.0Game score
35
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX10-4
8981
NY10-2
PHX10-4NY10-2
PHX
10-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 28 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 30 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 28 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 20 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +4 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 28 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 89 | 42 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Copper, M. McConnell | ||||||||
NY
10-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 33 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 35 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -10 | |
| 27 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 81 | 32 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 19 | ||
| DNP: M. Davis | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
43
22
Ast
19
Playoff series
PHX wins series 2-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:48
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 27 min
18 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat NY 89-81. A. Thomas led with 18 PTS, 15 REB, 7 AST. PHX outscored the other side 25-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(5)
15 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
NYstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 18 REB · 19 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 14 REB · 0 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 5:48 · 53-49
+14pp→ 55% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · technical foul
NY4th Quarter · 6:05 · 74-70
+14pp→ 38% WP
Natasha Mack · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 4:29 · 79-74
+13pp→ 79% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 15 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 89 |
| NY | 17 | 21 | 27 | 16 | 81 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · NY won 2
15
17
Q1
Thomas 4
Ionescu 5
26
21
Q2
Thomas 8
Stewart 12
23
27
Q3
Makani 11
Stewart 18
25
16
Q4
Whitcomb 8
Sabally 4
PHX
NY
Shooting comparison
PHX
NY
42%
30-72
FG
43%
26-61
23%
7-31
3PT
31%
8-26
81%
22-27
FT
84%
21-25
Play-by-play · 429 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 89·NY 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 89·NY 81
- Q4·10.1
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
PHX 89·NY 81
- Q4·15.0
Sabrina Ionescu misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 89·NY 81
−0.5pp
- Q4·20.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
PHX 89·NY 81
- Q4·20.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 88·NY 81
- Q4·20.1
Satou Sabally misses free throw 1 of 2
·
PHX 88·NY 81
- Q4·20.1
Natasha Cloud personal take foul
PHX 88·NY 81
- Q4·20.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
·
PHX 88·NY 81
- Q4·21.0
Breanna Stewart misses two point shot
PHX 88·NY 81
−1pp
- Q4·27.0
Liberty Full timeout
PHX 88·NY 81
- Q4·27.0
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 88·NY 81
+0.8pp
- Q4·27.0
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 87·NY 81
- Q4·27.0
Marine Johannes personal take foul
PHX 86·NY 81
−2pp
- Q4·27.0
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 81
−1pp
- Q4·30.0
Sabrina Ionescu misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 86·NY 81
−3pp
- Q4·34.0
Liberty Full timeout
PHX 86·NY 81
- Q4·34.0
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 81
- Q4·35.0
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 86·NY 81
+4pp
- Q4·35.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 86·NY 81
+2pp
- Q4·35.0
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 86·NY 81
+1pp
- Q4·35.0
Kennedy Burke personal take foul
PHX 86·NY 81
−4pp
- Q4·41.1
Kitija Laksa offensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 81
−4pp
- Q4·44.1
Satou Sabally misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
PHX 86·NY 81
+1pp
- Q4·1:08
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 86·NY 81
−4pp
- Q4·1:08
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 86·NY 80
+1pp
- Q4·1:08
Monique Akoa Makani shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·NY 79
+5pp
- Q4·1:13
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 79
- Q4·1:17
Kitija Laksa misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 86·NY 79
+1pp
- Q4·1:37
Breanna Stewart makes layup (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
PHX 86·NY 79
−2pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
NY
Home
30-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-61
42
FG %
43
7-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-26
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-25
22
Assists
19
13
Turnovers
19
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
NY
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3