Jun 14, 25sim 94
384
17(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+24GS
CON
2-12
6387
GS
7-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Connecticut Sun, 87–63. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Jacy Sheldon
G · #4
9.3Game score
10
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
21.0Game score
21
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON2-12
6387
GS7-6
CON2-12GS7-6
CON
2-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 20 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -17 | |
| 20 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 29 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -25 | |
| 32 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -11 | |
| 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -22 | |
| 23 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | |
| 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -22 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| Team | 63 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Diaby | ||||||||
GS
7-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +31 | |
| 19 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +26 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +22 | |
| 27 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | +6 | |
| 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +15 | |
| Team | 87 | 51 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: C. Leite | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
30
FG %
36
14
Ast
18
Season series
GS wins series 2-1
Jun 23CON63@GS87today
CON63@GS87todayJul 27GS64@CON95
GS64@CON95Aug 12CON57@GS74
CON57@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 34pp · 1st Quarter · 58.2
CONJ. Sheldon
GGame leader · 29 min
10 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
GSK. Thornton
FGame leader · 22 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
GS beat CON 87-63. K. Thornton led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 36-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST
GS 30
Bench(6)
21 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST
GS 6
GSstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST
GS 52
Bench(10)
32 PTS · 23 REB · 7 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 3:00 · 13-19
+8pp→ 81% WP
Kate Martin · enters the game for Kayla Thornton
CON1st Quarter · 58.2 · 20-20
+34pp→ 36% WP
Monique Billings · out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON1st Quarter · 49.2 · 20-20
+32pp→ 35% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · misses 12-foot two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 63 |
| GS | 23 | 36 | 14 | 14 | 87 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · GS won 3
20
23
Q1
Sheldon 5
Hayes 7
12
36
Q2
Morrow 4
Peters 29
13
14
Q3
Sheldon 5
Nelson-Ododa 6
18
14
Q4
Marshall 5
Bibby 5
CON
GS
Shooting comparison
CON
GS
30%
20-66
FG
36%
28-78
29%
7-24
3PT
29%
9-31
76%
16-21
FT
76%
22-29
Play-by-play · 430 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 63·GS 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 63·GS 87
- Q4·11.1
Aneesah Morrow makes 19-foot jumper (Olivia Nelson-Ododa assists)
·
CON 63·GS 87
- Q4·27.0
Chloe Bibby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
CON 61·GS 87
- Q4·40.1
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
CON 61·GS 84
- Q4·46.0
Jaelyn Brown misses 16-foot jumper
CON 61·GS 84
- Q4·57.0
Aerial Powers makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·GS 84
- Q4·57.0
Aerial Powers makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·GS 83
- Q4·57.0
Saniya Rivers shooting foul
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Chloe Bibby offensive rebound
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Bree Hall misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Bree Hall misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Bree Hall makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 61·GS 82
- Q4·1:01
Aneesah Morrow transition take foul
CON 61·GS 81
- Q4·1:01
Bree Hall defensive rebound
CON 61·GS 81
- Q4·1:02
Laeticia Amihere blocks Aneesah Morrow 's 6-foot driving layup
·
CON 61·GS 81
- Q4·1:13
Bree Hall makes driving layup (Chloe Bibby assists)
·
CON 61·GS 81
- Q4·1:23
Olivia Nelson-Ododa personal foul
CON 61·GS 79
- Q4·1:38
Aneesah Morrow makes two point shot
CON 61·GS 79
- Q4·1:38
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 59·GS 79
- Q4·1:40
Saniya Rivers misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CON 59·GS 79
- Q4·1:52
Chloe Bibby makes 10-foot two point shot
CON 59·GS 79
- Q4·2:06
Chloe Bibby defensive rebound
CON 59·GS 77
- Q4·2:08
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·GS 77
- Q4·2:08
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·GS 77
- Q4·2:08
Bree Hall shooting foul
CON 58·GS 77
- Q4·2:25
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 58·GS 77
- Q4·2:27
Bree Hall misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 58·GS 77
- Q4·2:50
Aneesah Morrow personal foul
CON 58·GS 77
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
GS
Home
20-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-78
30
FG %
36
7-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-29
14
Assists
18
13
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
GS
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶41.3%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶86.4
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1