Sep 9, 25sim 92
872
5(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10NY
MIN
28-6
7585
NY
22-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Minnesota Lynx, 85–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natisha Hiedeman
G · #2
10.9Game score
16
Pts
1
Reb
0
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
20.5Game score
22
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN28-6
7585
NY22-13
MIN28-6NY22-13
MIN
28-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15 | |
| 32 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -4 | |
| 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 32 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -19 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 22 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 19 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 75 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 10 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
NY
22-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 30 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 25 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 27 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 34 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +16 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 25 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 85 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, B. Stewart, N. Sabally, R. Gardner | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
44
10
Ast
23
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 31NY93@MIN100
NY93@MIN100Aug 10MIN83@NY71
MIN83@NY71Aug 16NY80@MIN86
NY80@MIN86Aug 19MIN75@NY85today
MIN75@NY85todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:27
MINN. Hiedeman
GGame leader · 22 min
16 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 30 min
22 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
NY beat MIN 85-75. J. Jones led with 22 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 49% of ptsStarters(5)
37 PTS · 27 REB · 9 AST
GS 26
Bench(3)
38 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 25
NYstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST
GS 67
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 14.2 · 20-24
+7pp→ 32% WP
DiJonai Carrington · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
NY2nd Quarter · 4:53 · 31-37
+7pp→ 71% WP
Jonquel Jones · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
NY2nd Quarter · 3:27 · 35-40
+8pp→ 69% WP
Jonquel Jones · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 20 | 17 | 23 | 15 | 75 |
| NY | 24 | 24 | 18 | 19 | 85 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · NY won 3
20
24
Q1
Smith 5
Jones 9
17
24
Q2
Williams 4
Ionescu 8
23
18
Q3
Williams 9
Meesseman 5
15
19
Q4
Kliundikova 4
Ionescu 7
MIN
NY
Shooting comparison
MIN
NY
41%
29-71
FG
44%
29-66
27%
6-22
3PT
41%
13-32
79%
11-14
FT
78%
14-18
Play-by-play · 380 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 75·NY 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 75·NY 85
- Q4·8.1
shot clock turnover
MIN 75·NY 85
- Q4·32.1
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 75·NY 85
- Q4·32.1
Kennedy Burke makes 3-foot layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
MIN 75·NY 85
- Q4·33.8
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
MIN 75·NY 83
- Q4·33.8
Liberty offensive team rebound
MIN 75·NY 82
- Q4·33.8
Sabrina Ionescu misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2
MIN 75·NY 82
+0.6pp
- Q4·33.8
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Maria Kliundikova
·
MIN 75·NY 82
- Q4·33.8
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 75·NY 82
- Q4·33.8
(00:33.8) [Lynx] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
MIN 75·NY 82
- Q4·33.8
Maria Kliundikova flagrant foul type 1
MIN 75·NY 82
- Q4·33.9
Sabrina Ionescu makes 30-foot three pointer
MIN 75·NY 82
+4pp
- Q4·42.4
Sabrina Ionescu offensive rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
+3pp
- Q4·44.5
Natasha Cloud misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 75·NY 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:03
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
+1pp
- Q4·1:07
Courtney Williams misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 75·NY 79
+4pp
- Q4·1:17
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Emma Meesseman
·
MIN 75·NY 79
- Q4·1:17
shot clock turnover
MIN 75·NY 79
−5pp
- Q4·1:17
Liberty offensive team rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
+4pp
- Q4·1:18
Sabrina Ionescu misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 75·NY 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:38
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
+1pp
- Q4·1:42
Courtney Williams misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 75·NY 79
+4pp
- Q4·1:53
Lynx timeout
MIN 75·NY 79
- Q4·1:53
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
- Q4·1:53
Natasha Cloud misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 75·NY 79
−5pp
- Q4·1:53
Liberty offensive team rebound
MIN 75·NY 79
−3pp
- Q4·1:53
Natasha Cloud misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 75·NY 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:53
Maria Kliundikova shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·NY 79
+6pp
- Q4·2:08
Natisha Hiedeman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 75·NY 79
−6pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NY
Home
29-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
41
FG %
44
6-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-32
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-18
10
Assists
23
10
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
NY
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.9%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
88.0
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3