Oct 9, 25sim 95
1790
11(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11LV
LV
30-14
9786
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 97–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
25.1Game score
31
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
16.5Game score
30
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
9786
PHX27-17
LV30-14PHX27-17
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 36 | 31 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | |
| 38 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +9 | |
| 35 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 31 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +18 | |
| 21 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| Team | 97 | 32 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 7 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 40 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -11 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 36 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 29 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -14 | |
| 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 86 | 41 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 18 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally, K. Laksa, K. Williams | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
49
19
Ast
17
Playoff series
LV wins series 4-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89
PHX86@LV89Oct 5PHX78@LV91
PHX78@LV91Oct 9LV90@PHX88
LV90@PHX88Oct 11LV97@PHX86today
LV97@PHX86todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 5.7
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 97-86. A. Wilson paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 30-21 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 65
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
PHXstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV3rd Quarter · 5.7 · 76-62
+13pp→ 97% WP
Sami Whitcomb · blocks Jewell Loyd 's 23-foot three point jumper
LV4th Quarter · 6:28 · 81-72
+6pp→ 92% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 30 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 97 |
| PHX | 21 | 17 | 24 | 24 | 86 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · PHX won 2
30
21
Q1
Wilson 12
Copper 5
24
17
Q2
Evans 8
Thomas 7
22
24
Q3
Wilson 11
Copper 21
21
24
Q4
Young 10
Bonner 13
LV
PHX
Shooting comparison
LV
PHX
39%
28-72
FG
49%
32-65
39%
12-31
3PT
28%
5-18
83%
29-35
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 414 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·5.7
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·7.7
Sami Whitcomb misses 29-foot three point jumper
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·12.3
Mercury timeout
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·12.3
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 97·PHX 86
- Q4·12.3
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 96·PHX 86
- Q4·12.3
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 96·PHX 86
- Q4·12.3
DeWanna Bonner personal foul
LV 95·PHX 86
- Q4·20.5
Jewell Loyd enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LV 95·PHX 86
- Q4·20.5
Dana Evans enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
LV 95·PHX 86
- Q4·20.5
Aces Full timeout
LV 95·PHX 86
- Q4·20.5
DeWanna Bonner makes two point shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
LV 95·PHX 86
- Q4·23.2
Jackie Young lost ball turnover (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
·
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·25.9
Jackie Young vs. Monique Akoa Makani (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·32.0
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·33.9
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Kierstan Bell enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Mercury Full timeout
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 95·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 94·PHX 84
- Q4·40.7
Sami Whitcomb personal foul
LV 93·PHX 84
- Q4·44.3
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
·
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.6pp
- Q4·51.0
A'ja Wilson out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 93·PHX 84
+0.6pp
- Q4·53.6
Aces Full timeout
LV 93·PHX 84
- Q4·53.6
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·53.6
Kalani Brown blocks Jewell Loyd 's 4-foot two point shot
·
LV 93·PHX 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·53.6
Jewell Loyd offensive rebound
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·56.0
Chelsea Gray misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 93·PHX 84
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
28-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-65
39
FG %
49
12-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-18
29-35
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
19
Assists
17
7
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
PHX
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9