WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+11LV

30-14

9786

PHX

27-17

WNBAFri, Oct 10FinalSeriesLV wins series 3-1

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Kahleah Copper

G · #2

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 5.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SmithF · #3	23	5	2-4	—	1-2	+16	5	0
K. BellF · #1	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	1	0
A. WilsonC · #22	36	31	7-21	0-2	17-19	+3	9	4
C. GrayG · #12	38	18	6-15	4-9	2-4	+9	4	4
J. YoungG · #0	35	18	5-14	1-6	7-8	+1	7	8
Bench
K. StokesC · #41	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
GustafsonC · #17	9	0	—	—	—	+7	1	0
J. LoydG · #24	31	12	4-10	4-8	—	+18	4	1
D. EvansG · #11	21	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	+4	1	2
Team		97	28-72	12-31	29-35		32	19
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #14	35	10	4-10	1-2	1-1	-5	10	1
A. ThomasF · #25	40	17	7-11	—	3-3	-11	12	10
N. MackF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
K. CopperG · #2	36	30	12-22	0-4	6-7	-7	6	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	29	10	3-7	1-3	3-3	-13	5	4
Bench
K. WestbeldF · #24	16	3	1-4	1-4	—	-14	3	0
K. BrownC · #21	18	10	3-6	—	4-5	0	4	0
S. WhitcombG · #33	17	3	1-4	1-4	—	-7	0	1
L. HeldG · #1	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	1	0
Team		86	32-65	5-18	17-19		41	17
DNP: S. Sabally, K. Laksa, K. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

28-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-65

FG %

12-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-18

29-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LV wins series 4-0

Oct 4

PHX86@

LV89

Oct 5

PHX78@

LV91

Oct 9

LV90@

PHX88

Oct 11

LV97@

PHX86today

How it ended

LV beat PHX 97-86. A. Wilson paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 30-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 16

PHXstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 47

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV3rd Quarter · 5.7 · 76-62

+13pp→ 97% WP

Sami Whitcomb · blocks Jewell Loyd 's 23-foot three point jumper

LV4th Quarter · 6:28 · 81-72

+6pp→ 92% WP

Chelsea Gray · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	30	24	22	21	97
PHX	21	17	24	24	86

Period scoring

LV won 2 · PHX won 2

Wilson 12

Copper 5

Evans 8

Thomas 7

Wilson 11

Copper 21

Young 10

Bonner 13

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

39%

28-72

49%

32-65

39%

12-31

3PT

28%

5-18

83%

29-35

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 414 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·5.7
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·7.7
Sami Whitcomb misses 29-foot three point jumper
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·12.3
Mercury timeout
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·12.3
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 97·PHX 86
Q4·12.3
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 96·PHX 86
Q4·12.3
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 96·PHX 86
Q4·12.3
DeWanna Bonner personal foul
LV 95·PHX 86
Q4·20.5
Jewell Loyd enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LV 95·PHX 86
Q4·20.5
Dana Evans enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
LV 95·PHX 86
Q4·20.5
Aces Full timeout
LV 95·PHX 86
Q4·20.5
DeWanna Bonner makes two point shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
LV 95·PHX 86
Q4·23.2
Jackie Young lost ball turnover (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
·
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·25.9
Jackie Young vs. Monique Akoa Makani (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·32.0
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·33.9
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Kierstan Bell enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Mercury Full timeout
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 95·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 94·PHX 84
Q4·40.7
Sami Whitcomb personal foul
LV 93·PHX 84
Q4·44.3
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
·
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.6pp
Q4·51.0
A'ja Wilson out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 93·PHX 84
+0.6pp
Q4·53.6
Aces Full timeout
LV 93·PHX 84
Q4·53.6
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.5pp
Q4·53.6
Kalani Brown blocks Jewell Loyd 's 4-foot two point shot
·
LV 93·PHX 84
+0.5pp
Q4·53.6
Jewell Loyd offensive rebound
LV 93·PHX 84
−0.5pp
Q4·56.0
Chelsea Gray misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 93·PHX 84

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 97–86.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV28/72 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim0/1

In the paint14/28

50%

Mid-range2/12

17%

Top-of-arc 38/24

33%

Left corner 33/3

100%

Right corner 31/4

25%

PHX32/65 · 49%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim4/6

67%

In the paint20/34

59%

Mid-range3/7

43%

Top-of-arc 35/16

31%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/1

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

47.2%

53.1%

TOV%

ball control

7.4%

19.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

23.3%

26.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

40.3%

26.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV28/72 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim0/1

In the paint14/28

50%

Mid-range2/12

17%

Top-of-arc 38/24

33%

Left corner 33/3

100%

Right corner 31/4

25%

PHX32/65 · 49%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim4/6

67%

In the paint20/34

59%

Mid-range3/7

43%

Top-of-arc 35/16

31%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/1

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.5%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
47.7%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
46.1%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.7%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.4high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
0.7± 0.4high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Jewell LoydLV
1.5± 1.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop