Sep 16, 25sim 98
2060
5(H)77
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6MIN
MIN
33-9
7872
GS
23-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 78–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natisha Hiedeman
G · #2
20.4Game score
24
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Iliana Rupert
C · #12
15.2Game score
15
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN33-9
7872
GS23-19
MIN33-9GS23-19
MIN
33-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 38 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 36 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 32 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +8 | |
| 33 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 28 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| Team | 78 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 10 | ||
| DNP: C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
GS
23-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 29 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 32 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 72 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, E. Kitley, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
39
17
Ast
16
Playoff series
MIN wins series 2-0
Sep 14GS72@MIN101
GS72@MIN101Sep 18MIN75@GS74
MIN75@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 9:42
MINN. Hiedeman
GGame leader · 28 min
24 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
GSI. Rupert
CGame leader · 34 min
15 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat GS 78-72. N. Hiedeman led with 24 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 30-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST
GS 41
Bench(2)
24 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 21
GSstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST
GS 44
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 3
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 9:42 · 61-52
+19pp→ 92% WP
Kaila Charles · bad pass (Jessica Shepard steals)
GS4th Quarter · 3:00 · 70-65
+15pp→ 28% WP
Napheesa Collier · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 45.8 · 74-71
+19pp→ 33% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 15 | 30 | 17 | 78 |
| GS | 18 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 72 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · GS won 3
16
18
Q1
Collier 6
Rupert 11
15
18
Q2
Hiedeman 7
Charles 6
30
16
Q3
Hiedeman 9
Salaun 7
17
20
Q4
Charles 6
Burton 12
MIN
GS
Shooting comparison
MIN
GS
38%
26-68
FG
39%
27-70
40%
12-30
3PT
26%
9-35
88%
14-16
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 361 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·5.3
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·8.3
Janelle Salaun misses two point shot
MIN 78·GS 72
−0.6pp
- Q4·10.3
Janelle Salaun offensive rebound
MIN 78·GS 72
+0.5pp
- Q4·10.3
Iliana Rupert misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 78·GS 72
−0.7pp
- Q4·11.7
Iliana Rupert offensive rebound
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·16.4
Janelle Salaun misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 78·GS 72
−1pp
- Q4·18.4
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Monique Billings
·
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·18.4
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 78·GS 72
- Q4·18.4
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 78·GS 72
+1pp
- Q4·18.4
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 77·GS 72
- Q4·18.4
Veronica Burton personal take foul
MIN 76·GS 72
−4pp
- Q4·22.2
Kaila Charles bad pass (Kayla McBride steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 76·GS 72
−9pp
- Q4·36.2
Napheesa Collier makes 10-foot two point shot (Kayla McBride assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 76·GS 72
−9pp
- Q4·45.8
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 74·GS 72
- Q4·45.8
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
MIN 74·GS 72
−10pp
- Q4·45.8
Natisha Hiedeman shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 74·GS 71
+19pp
- Q4·45.8
Veronica Burton makes driving layup
MIN 74·GS 71
+3pp
- Q4·55.2
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 74·GS 69
+4pp
- Q4·55.2
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
MIN 73·GS 69
- Q4·55.2
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 73·GS 69
−1pp
- Q4·55.2
Monique Billings shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 72·GS 69
−10pp
- Q4·1:18
Iliana Rupert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kaila Charles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 72·GS 69
+10pp
- Q4·1:25
Courtney Williams lost ball turnover (Kaila Charles steals)
·
MIN 72·GS 66
+3pp
- Q4·1:42
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
MIN 72·GS 66
−1pp
- Q4·1:46
Veronica Burton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 72·GS 66
−3pp
- Q4·1:52
Iliana Rupert defensive rebound
MIN 72·GS 66
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:57
Kayla McBride misses 18-foot jumper
MIN 72·GS 66
+3pp
- Q4·1:59
Courtney Williams enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 72·GS 66
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
GS
Home
26-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-70
38
FG %
39
12-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-35
14-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
17
Assists
16
10
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
GS
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1