Sep 7, 25sim 95
878
129689(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5MIN
MIN
29-7
9590
IND
19-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 95–90.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Jessica Shepard
F · #15
29.0Game score
22
Pts
11
Reb
10
Ast
IND · top performer
Lexie Hull
G · #10
17.4Game score
23
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN29-7
9590
IND19-17
MIN29-7IND19-17
MIN
29-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 40 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 33 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| 33 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 15 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 27 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 95 | 30 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 8 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
IND
19-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | |
| 32 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 35 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 38 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 21 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 22 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| Team | 90 | 23 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 13 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
55
25
Ast
24
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Aug 22MIN95@IND90today
MIN95@IND90todayAug 24IND84@MIN97
IND84@MIN97Sep 9MIN72@IND83
MIN72@IND83Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:49
MINJ. Shepard
FGame leader · 40 minTriple-double
22 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
INDL. Hull
GGame leader · 38 min
23 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat IND 95-90. J. Shepard stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 11 REB, and 10 AST. MIN outscored the other side 32-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST
GS 67
Bench(3)
27 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 18
INDstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST
GS 54
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 9:34 · 24-30
+7pp→ 60% WP
Damiris Dantas · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
IND2nd Quarter · 9:01 · 24-33
+7pp→ 70% WP
Lexie Hull · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND2nd Quarter · 1:49 · 46-50
+10pp→ 58% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Shey Peddy assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 22 | 28 | 32 | 13 | 95 |
| IND | 27 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 90 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · IND won 2
22
27
Q1
Shepard 10
Hull 11
28
25
Q2
McBride 14
Hull 7
32
17
Q3
McBride 9
Mitchell 7
13
21
Q4
Shepard 4
Boston 8
MIN
IND
Shooting comparison
MIN
IND
56%
38-68
FG
55%
34-62
43%
9-21
3PT
65%
13-20
59%
10-17
FT
69%
9-13
Play-by-play · 351 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 95·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 95·IND 90
- Q4·2.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes two point shot (Shey Peddy assists)
·
MIN 95·IND 90
- Q4·6.4
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
MIN 95·IND 88
- Q4·6.4
Fever timeout
MIN 95·IND 88
- Q4·6.4
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 95·IND 88
- Q4·6.4
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 94·IND 88
- Q4·6.4
Lexie Hull personal take foul
MIN 93·IND 88
- Q4·7.2
Brianna Turner enters the game for Damiris Dantas
·
MIN 93·IND 88
- Q4·7.2
Lynx timeout
MIN 93·IND 88
- Q4·7.2
Lexie Hull personal take foul
MIN 93·IND 88
- Q4·8.6
Lexie Hull makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Damiris Dantas assists)
·
MIN 93·IND 88
- Q4·10.0
Damiris Dantas offensive rebound
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·12.6
Lexie Hull misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·19.2
shot clock turnover
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·19.2
(00:19.2) [Lynx] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·19.2
Fever Full timeout
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·19.2
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·19.6
Alanna Smith misses 8-foot two point shot
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·20.4
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·22.4
Kayla McBride misses two point shot
MIN 93·IND 86
- Q4·43.2
Shey Peddy bad pass (Bridget Carleton steals)
·
MIN 93·IND 86
−2pp
- Q4·1:03
Bridget Carleton makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 93·IND 86
−2pp
- Q4·1:28
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
MIN 91·IND 86
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:38
Kayla McBride makes 4-foot two point shot
MIN 91·IND 84
−3pp
- Q4·2:02
Aliyah Boston makes layup (Lexie Hull assists)
·
MIN 89·IND 84
+0.9pp
- Q4·2:18
shot clock turnover
MIN 89·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·2:42
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 89·IND 82
- Q4·2:43
Aliyah Boston makes 2-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
MIN 89·IND 82
+0.9pp
- Q4·2:49
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
MIN 89·IND 80
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
IND
Home
38-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-62
56
FG %
55
9-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-20
10-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-13
25
Assists
24
8
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort- Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
IND
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
89.7
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4