Sep 7, 25sim 98
878
129689(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17IND
ATL
30-14
6077
IND
24-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Atlanta Dream, 77–60.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Te-Hina Paopao
G · #2
8.0Game score
11
Pts
1
Reb
0
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
14.4Game score
19
Pts
0
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL30-14
6077
IND24-20
ATL30-14IND24-20
ATL
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
| 29 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 31 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -23 | |
| 23 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 33 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -24 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| Team | 60 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 13 | ||
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 22 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 27 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| 29 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +18 | |
| 23 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +19 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 77 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, D. Dantas, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
43
20
Ast
16
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
Sep 14IND68@ATL80
IND68@ATL80Sep 16ATL60@IND77today
ATL60@IND77todaySep 18IND87@ATL85
IND87@ATL85Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:37
ATLT. Paopao
GGame leader · 14 min
11 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 29 min
19 PTS · 0 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
IND beat ATL 77-60. K. Mitchell led with 19 PTS, 0 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 24-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST
GS 21
Bench(7)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 14
INDstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 36
Bench(5)
19 PTS · 18 REB · 2 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 1:04 · 25-35
+7pp→ 82% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three pointer
IND3rd Quarter · 5:37 · 37-40
+10pp→ 70% WP
Nia Coffey · enters the game for Naz Hillmon
IND3rd Quarter · 3:41 · 37-45
+7pp→ 81% WP
Aliyah Boston · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 |
| IND | 20 | 15 | 24 | 18 | 77 |
Period scoring
ATL won 0 · IND won 3
14
20
Q1
Jones 6
Mitchell 8
15
15
Q2
Howard 6
Howard 6
15
24
Q3
Howard 4
Mitchell 8
16
18
Q4
Paopao 11
Timpson 7
ATL
IND
Shooting comparison
ATL
IND
38%
25-66
FG
43%
27-63
26%
5-19
3PT
42%
8-19
50%
5-10
FT
100%
15-15
Play-by-play · 396 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·21.3
Sika Kone out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·25.3
Brianna Turner bad pass (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough steals)
·
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·42.7
Aerial Powers defensive rebound
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·44.1
Maya Caldwell misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·54.3
Makayla Timpson makes two point shot
ATL 60·IND 77
- Q4·54.3
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
ATL 60·IND 75
- Q4·56.7
Aerial Powers misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 60·IND 75
- Q4·1:22
Te-Hina Paopao makes 27-foot three pointer
ATL 60·IND 75
- Q4·1:30
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 57·IND 75
- Q4·1:30
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 57·IND 74
- Q4·1:30
Sika Kone enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 57·IND 74
- Q4·1:30
Bree Hall enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
ATL 57·IND 74
- Q4·1:30
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 57·IND 74
- Q4·1:30
Brittney Griner shooting foul
ATL 57·IND 73
- Q4·1:54
Te-Hina Paopao makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough assists)
·
ATL 57·IND 73
- Q4·2:02
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:06
Aerial Powers misses running pullup jump shot
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:11
Aerial Powers defensive rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:13
Brittney Griner misses layup
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:23
Aerial Powers enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:23
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:23
Lexie Hull loose ball foul
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:23
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:25
Odyssey Sims misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:52
Brittney Griner makes two point shot (Maya Caldwell assists)
·
ATL 54·IND 73
- Q4·2:57
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 52·IND 73
- Q4·3:02
Shey Peddy misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 52·IND 73
- Q4·3:22
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
ATL 52·IND 73
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
25-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-63
38
FG %
43
5-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-19
5-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-15
20
Assists
16
13
Turnovers
15
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
IND
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.1%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4