WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17IND

ATL

30-14

6077

IND

24-20

WNBATue, Sep 16FinalSeriestied 2-2

ATL · top performer

Te-Hina Paopao

G · #2

8.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:37

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. JonesF · #24	22	8	4-6	—	—	-18	2	1
N. HillmonF · #0	29	8	4-11	0-4	—	-11	7	3
A. GrayG · #15	31	9	4-16	1-4	—	-23	7	2
J. CanadaG · #3	23	4	2-7	0-1	0-2	-13	0	6
R. HowardG · #10	33	10	3-9	0-4	4-6	-24	2	3
Bench
N. CoffeyF · #12	9	0	0-2	—	—	-5	2	0
T. ThierryF · #5	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
S. KoneF · #23	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
B. GrinerC · #42	16	7	3-7	—	1-2	0	1	2
S. Walker-KimbroughG · #32	5	0	—	—	—	+6	1	1
M. CaldwellG · #33	14	3	1-2	1-1	—	-1	4	2
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	11	4-6	3-5	—	+2	1	0
Team		60	25-66	5-19	5-10		27	20

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #6	28	12	5-8	0-1	2-2	+13	5	2
A. BostonC · #7	22	15	7-12	1-2	—	+14	5	3
O. SimsG · #1	27	5	1-10	1-2	2-2	+1	4	4
K. MitchellG · #0	29	19	6-13	4-8	3-3	+18	0	4
L. HullG · #10	23	7	2-6	1-2	2-2	+19	5	1
Bench
B. TurnerF · #11	20	4	1-2	—	2-2	+10	6	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	9	9	3-3	—	3-3	-3	3	0
S. PeddyG · #5	23	3	1-4	1-3	—	+16	2	1
A. PowersG · #23	17	3	1-5	0-1	1-1	-2	7	0
B. HallG · #3	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		77	27-63	8-19	15-15		37	16
DNP: C. Bibby, D. Dantas, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

25-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-63

FG %

5-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-19

5-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-15

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 14

IND68@

ATL80

Sep 16

ATL60@

IND77today

Sep 18

IND87@

ATL85

How it ended

IND beat ATL 77-60. K. Mitchell led with 19 PTS, 0 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 24-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST

GS 21

Bench(7)

21 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 14

INDstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 18 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 1:04 · 25-35

+7pp→ 82% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three pointer

IND3rd Quarter · 5:37 · 37-40

+10pp→ 70% WP

Nia Coffey · enters the game for Naz Hillmon

IND3rd Quarter · 3:41 · 37-45

+7pp→ 81% WP

Aliyah Boston · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	14	15	15	16	60
IND	20	15	24	18	77

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · IND won 3

Jones 6

Mitchell 8

Howard 6

Howard 4

Mitchell 8

Paopao 11

Timpson 7

ATL

IND

Shooting comparison

ATL

IND

38%

25-66

43%

27-63

26%

5-19

3PT

42%

8-19

50%

5-10

100%

15-15

Play-by-play · 396 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·21.3
Sika Kone out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·25.3
Brianna Turner bad pass (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough steals)
·
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·42.7
Aerial Powers defensive rebound
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·44.1
Maya Caldwell misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·54.3
Makayla Timpson makes two point shot
ATL 60·IND 77
Q4·54.3
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
ATL 60·IND 75
Q4·56.7
Aerial Powers misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 60·IND 75
Q4·1:22
Te-Hina Paopao makes 27-foot three pointer
ATL 60·IND 75
Q4·1:30
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 57·IND 75
Q4·1:30
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 57·IND 74
Q4·1:30
Sika Kone enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 57·IND 74
Q4·1:30
Bree Hall enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
ATL 57·IND 74
Q4·1:30
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 57·IND 74
Q4·1:30
Brittney Griner shooting foul
ATL 57·IND 73
Q4·1:54
Te-Hina Paopao makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough assists)
·
ATL 57·IND 73
Q4·2:02
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:06
Aerial Powers misses running pullup jump shot
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:11
Aerial Powers defensive rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:13
Brittney Griner misses layup
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:23
Aerial Powers enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:23
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:23
Lexie Hull loose ball foul
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:23
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:25
Odyssey Sims misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:52
Brittney Griner makes two point shot (Maya Caldwell assists)
·
ATL 54·IND 73
Q4·2:57
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 52·IND 73
Q4·3:02
Shey Peddy misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 52·IND 73
Q4·3:22
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
ATL 52·IND 73

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Atlanta Dream, 77–60.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

ATL25/66 · 38%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/28

54%

In the paint3/10

30%

Mid-range2/9

22%

Top-of-arc 34/17

24%

Left corner 31/2

50%

IND27/63 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/29

52%

In the paint4/8

50%

Mid-range0/7

Top-of-arc 38/17

47%

Right corner 30/2

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

IND

eFG%

shooting

41.7%

49.2%

TOV%

ball control

15.6%

17.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

13.5%

18.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

7.6%

23.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

ATL25/66 · 38%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/28

54%

In the paint3/10

30%

Mid-range2/9

22%

Top-of-arc 34/17

24%

Left corner 31/2

50%

IND27/63 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/29

52%

In the paint4/8

50%

Mid-range0/7

Top-of-arc 38/17

47%

Right corner 30/2

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.4%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.4± 1.3high

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Aces83Storm86Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop