Sep 28, 25sim 95
1783
5(H)90
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+12MIN
MIN
27-5
8371
NY
20-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into New York Liberty and beat them, 83–71.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
19.1Game score
8
Pts
9
Reb
7
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
12.1Game score
11
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN27-5
8371
NY20-11
MIN27-5NY20-11
MIN
27-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 38 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +14 | |
| 34 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +21 | |
| 25 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +4 | |
| 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +7 | |
| 15 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| Team | 83 | 32 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
NY
20-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 32 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -12 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 30 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 71 | 33 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 18 | ||
| DNP: B. Stewart, N. Sabally, K. Burke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
42
24
Ast
21
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 31NY93@MIN100
NY93@MIN100Aug 10MIN83@NY71today
MIN83@NY71todayAug 16NY80@MIN86
NY80@MIN86Aug 19MIN75@NY85
MIN75@NY85Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:01
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 38 min
8 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 32 min
11 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
MIN beat NY 83-71. A. Smith led with 8 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. MIN outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
34 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 32
NYstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 3:59 · 50-54
+9pp→ 68% WP
Natasha Cloud · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jonquel Jones assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 3:01 · 56-54
+10pp→ 56% WP
DiJonai Carrington · makes 27-foot three point shot (Kayla McBride assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 2:05 · 59-54
+10pp→ 70% WP
DiJonai Carrington · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 11 | 30 | 17 | 83 |
| NY | 24 | 14 | 19 | 14 | 71 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · NY won 1
25
24
Q1
Williams 8
Cloud 6
11
14
Q2
Kliundikova 6
Harrison 9
30
19
Q3
Hiedeman 9
Meesseman 7
17
14
Q4
McBride 4
Ionescu 4
MIN
NY
Shooting comparison
MIN
NY
49%
34-70
FG
42%
28-66
48%
10-21
3PT
33%
8-24
63%
5-8
FT
78%
7-9
Play-by-play · 339 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·0.6
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·2.7
Stephanie Talbot misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·24.5
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·26.7
Maria Kliundikova misses driving layup
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·42.7
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·45.0
Alanna Smith blocks Isabelle Harrison 's 12-foot two point shot
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·59.3
Liberty defensive team rebound
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:01
Courtney Williams misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Bridget Carleton enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Marine Johannes enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Kayla McBride makes technical free throw
MIN 83·NY 71
- Q4·1:12
Natasha Cloud technical foul
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:17
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:19
Natasha Cloud misses two point shot
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:22
Sabrina Ionescu defensive rebound
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:25
Jonquel Jones blocks Courtney Williams 's 20-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:37
DiJonai Carrington offensive rebound
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:40
Maria Kliundikova misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·1:59
Leonie Fiebich makes 23-foot three point jumper (Emma Meesseman assists)
·
MIN 82·NY 71
- Q4·2:11
Courtney Williams makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 82·NY 68
- Q4·2:35
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
MIN 80·NY 68
- Q4·2:39
Sabrina Ionescu misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 80·NY 68
- Q4·2:47
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
MIN 80·NY 68
- Q4·2:50
Maria Kliundikova misses 21-foot jumper
MIN 80·NY 68
- Q4·3:12
Jonquel Jones makes 14-foot two point shot (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
MIN 80·NY 68
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NY
Home
34-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-66
49
FG %
42
10-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
5-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-9
24
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
NY
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.9%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
88.0
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3