Sep 21, 25sim 93
1169
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6MIN
NY
21-13
8086
MIN
28-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off New York Liberty, 86–80.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
12.2Game score
17
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
18.2Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY21-13
8086
MIN28-5
NY21-13MIN28-5
NY
21-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 30 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | |
| 28 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 33 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 24 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 23 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| Team | 80 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, B. Stewart, N. Sabally, R. Gardner | ||||||||
MIN
28-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 19 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 35 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | |
| 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 35 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 86 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
43
21
Ast
20
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 31NY93@MIN100
NY93@MIN100Aug 10MIN83@NY71
MIN83@NY71Aug 16NY80@MIN86today
NY80@MIN86todayAug 19MIN75@NY85
MIN75@NY85Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 1:31
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 30 min
17 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 35 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
MIN beat NY 86-80. C. Williams paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 21-12 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST
GS 43
Bench(3)
23 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
GS 10
MINstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST
GS 59
Bench(3)
12 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 4:29 · 76-73
+15pp→ 66% WP
Emma Meesseman · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kennedy Burke assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 2:29 · 78-77
+20pp→ 65% WP
Emma Meesseman · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 1:31 · 78-79
+30pp→ 71% WP
Kennedy Burke · misses 22-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 12 | 21 | 28 | 19 | 80 |
| MIN | 21 | 17 | 22 | 26 | 86 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · MIN won 2
12
21
Q1
Cloud 4
McBride 6
21
17
Q2
Jones 5
Williams 9
28
22
Q3
Ionescu 9
Williams 8
19
26
Q4
Johannes 6
Smith 10
NY
MIN
Shooting comparison
NY
MIN
45%
32-71
FG
43%
28-65
38%
11-29
3PT
32%
7-22
63%
5-8
FT
70%
23-33
Play-by-play · 400 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 80·MIN 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 80·MIN 86
- Q4·3.6
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 80·MIN 86
- Q4·3.6
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 80·MIN 85
- Q4·3.6
Sabrina Ionescu personal take foul
NY 80·MIN 84
+0.7pp
- Q4·3.6
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
NY 80·MIN 84
+1pp
- Q4·5.9
Sabrina Ionescu misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 80·MIN 84
+13pp
- Q4·8.6
Leonie Fiebich enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 80·MIN 84
- Q4·8.6
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 80·MIN 84
−12pp
- Q4·12.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 80·MIN 84
−1pp
- Q4·12.5
Lynx offensive team rebound
NY 80·MIN 83
−0.8pp
- Q4·12.5
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 80·MIN 83
−0.9pp
- Q4·12.5
Sabrina Ionescu personal take foul
NY 80·MIN 83
+2pp
- Q4·14.6
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
NY 80·MIN 83
+1pp
- Q4·16.4
Natasha Cloud misses driving layup
NY 80·MIN 83
+4pp
- Q4·20.5
Marine Johannes enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
NY 80·MIN 83
- Q4·20.5
Bridget Carleton enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
NY 80·MIN 83
- Q4·20.5
Liberty timeout
NY 80·MIN 83
- Q4·20.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 80·MIN 83
+2pp
- Q4·20.5
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 80·MIN 82
−5pp
- Q4·20.5
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 80·MIN 82
−2pp
- Q4·20.5
Natasha Cloud personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 80·MIN 82
+9pp
- Q4·25.2
Natasha Cloud vs. DiJonai Carrington (Kayla McBride gains possession)
· ·
NY 80·MIN 82
- Q4·25.2
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
NY 80·MIN 82
- Q4·25.2
Lynx delay of game violation
NY 80·MIN 82
+1pp
- Q4·27.2
DiJonai Carrington enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
NY 80·MIN 82
- Q4·27.2
Lynx Full timeout
NY 80·MIN 82
- Q4·27.2
Leonie Fiebich makes 2-foot layup (Natasha Cloud assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 80·MIN 82
−5pp
- Q4·30.8
Liberty Full timeout
NY 78·MIN 82
- Q4·31.9
Kayla McBride makes 29-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 78·MIN 82
+11pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
32-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-65
45
FG %
43
11-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-22
5-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-33
21
Assists
20
13
Turnovers
7
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
MIN
45.9%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
35.3%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.3
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4