Sep 14, 25sim 95
12968972
8(H)101
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13MIN
IND
19-18
8497
MIN
30-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Indiana Fever, 97–84.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
19.6Game score
26
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
27.1Game score
32
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND19-18
8497
MIN30-7
IND19-18MIN30-7
IND
19-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 34 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 33 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -14 | |
| 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 18 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 18 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 84 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
MIN
30-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +20 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 31 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +24 | |
| 31 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 27 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 14 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +12 | |
| 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 97 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 14 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
57
21
Ast
28
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Aug 22MIN95@IND90
MIN95@IND90Aug 24IND84@MIN97today
IND84@MIN97todaySep 9MIN72@IND83
MIN72@IND83Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:36
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 33 min
26 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 31 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat IND 97-84. N. Collier paced them with 32 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 17 REB · 16 AST
GS 48
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 15
MINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST
GS 67
Bench(7)
23 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 1:26 · 28-18
+7pp→ 42% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · misses free throw 3 of 3
MIN2nd Quarter · 6:09 · 37-32
+7pp→ 51% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 23-foot three pointer (Napheesa Collier assists)
IND2nd Quarter · 3:36 · 43-38
+9pp→ 50% WP
Shey Peddy · makes 24-foot three point shot (Aliyah Boston assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 30 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 84 |
| MIN | 25 | 27 | 25 | 20 | 97 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · MIN won 3
30
25
Q1
Mitchell 12
Collier 10
15
27
Q2
Mitchell 4
Kliundikova 11
21
25
Q3
Mitchell 9
Collier 9
18
20
Q4
Howard 4
Collier 9
IND
MIN
Shooting comparison
IND
MIN
48%
31-65
FG
57%
36-63
44%
8-18
3PT
57%
12-21
82%
14-17
FT
93%
13-14
Play-by-play · 367 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 84·MIN 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 84·MIN 97
- Q4·9.6
Brianna Turner makes 2-foot layup (Aerial Powers assists)
·
IND 84·MIN 97
- Q4·27.6
Bridget Carleton makes 14-foot jumper (Jaylyn Sherrod assists)
·
IND 82·MIN 97
- Q4·29.2
Lynx offensive team rebound
IND 82·MIN 95
- Q4·29.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses driving layup
IND 82·MIN 95
- Q4·49.4
Makayla Timpson makes layup (Aerial Powers assists)
·
IND 82·MIN 95
- Q4·1:02
shot clock turnover
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:02
Lynx offensive team rebound
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:02
Jaylyn Sherrod misses 20-foot jumper
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:26
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:26
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:26
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:26
shot clock turnover
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:49
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:49
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:49
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:49
Fever Full timeout
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:49
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·1:51
Bridget Carleton misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:11
Brianna Turner enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:11
Lynx defensive team rebound
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:15
Aliyah Boston misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:15
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:15
Aliyah Boston misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:15
Alanna Smith personal foul
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:22
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·MIN 95
- Q4·2:22
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 80·MIN 94
- Q4·2:22
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 80·MIN 93
- Q4·2:42
Shey Peddy makes driving layup (Lexie Hull assists)
·
IND 80·MIN 93
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
31-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-63
48
FG %
57
8-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-21
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-14
21
Assists
28
12
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
MIN
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
89.7
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.3
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4