Oct 1, 25sim 96
598
17(H)107
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16IND
IND
24-20
8973
LV
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 89–73.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
22.9Game score
34
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Dana Evans
G · #11
12.4Game score
14
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND24-20
8973
LV30-14
IND24-20LV30-14
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 29 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 32 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +20 | |
| 34 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +20 | |
| 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +24 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +10 | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| Team | 89 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: D. Dantas, S. Cunningham | ||||||||
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 34 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | |
| 34 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -23 | |
| 35 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -19 | |
| 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 73 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
41
17
Ast
12
Playoff series
IND leads series 1-0
Sep 21IND89@LV73today
IND89@LV73todaySep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72
LV84@IND72Sep 28LV83@IND90
LV83@IND90Oct 1IND98@LV107
IND98@LV107Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:57
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
LVD. Evans
GGame leader · 23 min
14 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat LV 89-73. K. Mitchell paced them with 34 PTS, 1 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 28-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 63
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 9
LVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 27 REB · 8 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
21 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 2:37 · 34-32
+8pp→ 53% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes free throw 1 of 2
LV3rd Quarter · 3:37 · 57-52
+7pp→ 37% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
IND3rd Quarter · 1:57 · 63-55
+8pp→ 80% WP
Lexie Hull · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 19 | 22 | 28 | 20 | 89 |
| LV | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 73 |
Period scoring
IND won 4 · LV won 0
19
18
Q1
Mitchell 7
Young 5
22
18
Q2
Mitchell 10
Wilson 9
28
19
Q3
Sims 11
Gray 8
20
18
Q4
Mitchell 6
Evans 7
IND
LV
Shooting comparison
IND
LV
50%
34-68
FG
41%
29-71
31%
5-16
3PT
29%
5-17
94%
16-17
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 363 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 89·LV 73
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 89·LV 73
- Q4·21.3
Bree Hall makes two point shot
IND 89·LV 73
- Q4·21.3
Bree Hall offensive rebound
IND 87·LV 73
- Q4·25.1
Bree Hall misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 87·LV 73
- Q4·39.0
Megan Gustafson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 87·LV 73
- Q4·39.0
Brianna Turner enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
IND 87·LV 72
- Q4·39.0
Megan Gustafson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 87·LV 72
- Q4·39.0
Bree Hall shooting foul
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·48.0
Dana Evans defensive rebound
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·51.3
Aerial Powers misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:04
Bree Hall defensive rebound
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:08
Dana Evans misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Bree Hall enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Dana Evans enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Jackie Young
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:15
Aerial Powers personal foul
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:23
Kelsey Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointer (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 87·LV 71
- Q4·1:42
Jewell Loyd loose ball foul
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·1:42
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·1:43
Chelsea Gray misses 24-foot three point shot
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·1:46
Jackie Young defensive rebound
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·1:50
A'ja Wilson blocks Kelsey Mitchell 's 4-foot driving layup
·
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·2:03
Jackie Young out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·2:09
Kelsey Mitchell bad pass (Jewell Loyd steals)
·
IND 84·LV 71
- Q4·2:27
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 84·LV 71
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LV
Home
34-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-71
50
FG %
41
5-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-17
16-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
17
Assists
12
10
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LV
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
91.0
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6