Sep 23, 25sim 96
1189
8(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13MIN
PHX
27-17
6982
MIN
34-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Phoenix Mercury, 82–69.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
18.4Game score
18
Pts
8
Reb
7
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
22.6Game score
23
Pts
8
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-17
6982
MIN34-10
PHX27-17MIN34-10
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 32 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 37 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 25 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 24 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | |
| Team | 69 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 26 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | |
| 34 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 38 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 33 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| Team | 82 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: C. Taylor, A. Kosu, D. Carrington, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
44
19
Ast
21
Playoff series
MIN leads series 1-0
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82today
PHX69@MIN82todaySep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:13
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 37 min
18 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
MIN beat PHX 82-69. C. Williams led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. MIN outscored the other side 23-10 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST
GS 43
Bench(3)
11 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST
GS 6
MINstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 37 REB · 17 AST
GS 56
Bench(3)
11 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX3rd Quarter · 7:03 · 49-44
+9pp→ 55% WP
Kahleah Copper · makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 5:13 · 67-68
+13pp→ 37% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 3:55 · 67-73
+10pp→ 87% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 24 | 23 | 12 | 10 | 69 |
| MIN | 22 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 82 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · MIN won 2
24
22
Q1
Thomas 8
Collier 10
23
18
Q2
Thomas 8
Williams 7
12
19
Q3
Copper 6
Collier 8
10
23
Q4
Copper 5
McBride 6
PHX
MIN
Shooting comparison
PHX
MIN
41%
31-75
FG
44%
34-77
13%
3-23
3PT
31%
9-29
100%
4-4
FT
83%
5-6
Play-by-play · 343 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 69·MIN 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 69·MIN 82
- Q4·0.4
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
PHX 69·MIN 82
- Q4·0.7
Kahleah Copper misses driving layup
PHX 69·MIN 82
- Q4·7.1
Maria Kliundikova makes 1-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 69·MIN 82
- Q4·29.1
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 69·MIN 80
- Q4·32.4
Satou Sabally misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 69·MIN 80
- Q4·46.9
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 69·MIN 80
- Q4·48.7
Kayla McBride misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 69·MIN 80
- Q4·1:11
Kahleah Copper makes driving layup (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 69·MIN 80
- Q4·1:30
Maria Kliundikova makes layup (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 67·MIN 80
- Q4·1:53
Sami Whitcomb bad pass (Maria Kliundikova steals)
·
PHX 67·MIN 78
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:04
Courtney Williams makes 1-foot two point shot
·
PHX 67·MIN 78
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:16
Lynx defensive team rebound
PHX 67·MIN 76
- Q4·2:16
DeWanna Bonner vs. Maria Kliundikova (Maria Kliundikova gains possession)
·
PHX 67·MIN 76
- Q4·2:16
Satou Sabally misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 67·MIN 76
+1pp
- Q4·2:35
Bridget Carleton makes 25-foot three point shot (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 67·MIN 76
+4pp
- Q4·2:42
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 67·MIN 73
+0.9pp
- Q4·2:44
Kahleah Copper misses 25-foot three point shot
PHX 67·MIN 73
+3pp
- Q4·2:49
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
PHX 67·MIN 73
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:52
Courtney Williams misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
·
PHX 67·MIN 73
−2pp
- Q4·3:05
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
PHX 67·MIN 73
+1pp
- Q4·3:08
Kahleah Copper misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 67·MIN 73
+3pp
- Q4·3:22
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
PHX 67·MIN 73
−0.7pp
- Q4·3:25
Kayla McBride misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 67·MIN 73
−2pp
- Q4·3:39
Lynx Full timeout
PHX 67·MIN 73
- Q4·3:40
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
PHX 67·MIN 73
+1pp
- Q4·3:42
Sami Whitcomb misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 67·MIN 73
+3pp
- Q4·3:55
Kayla McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 67·MIN 73
+10pp
- Q4·4:01
Maria Kliundikova offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 67·MIN 70
+5pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
31-75
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-77
41
FG %
44
3-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-29
4-4
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-6
19
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
MIN
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4