Sep 21, 25sim 96
1169
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6PHX
PHX
27-17
8983
MIN
34-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 89–83 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
17.8Game score
19
Pts
8
Reb
13
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
17.3Game score
24
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
PHX27-17
8983
MIN34-10
PHX27-17MIN34-10
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 43 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +13 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 19 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -14 | |
| 38 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 33 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 33 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| Team | 89 | 37 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 41 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 30 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -9 | |
| 38 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -11 | |
| 43 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | |
| 15 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 83 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 17 | ||
| DNP: D. Carrington | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
45
29
Ast
22
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83today
PHX89@MIN83todaySep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 4.3
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 43 min
19 PTS · 8 REB · 13 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 38 min
24 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat MIN 89-83. A. Thomas led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 13 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST
GS 50
Bench(3)
25 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 21
MINstarters 96% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST
GS 61
Bench(6)
3 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 3
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 3:32 · 69-70
+20pp→ 54% WP
Courtney Williams · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 3:15 · 70-73
+17pp→ 73% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 4.3 · 79-79
+43pp→ 47% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Satou Sabally assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 13 | 22 | 25 | 10 | 89 |
| MIN | 21 | 27 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 83 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · MIN won 2
19
21
Q1
Sabally 10
Collier 9
13
27
Q2
Whitcomb 5
Williams 8
22
14
Q3
Westbeld 8
Williams 4
25
17
Q4
Sabally 11
McBride 7
10
4
OT
Thomas 7
Williams 2
PHX
MIN
Shooting comparison
PHX
MIN
42%
33-79
FG
45%
34-75
41%
13-32
3PT
25%
7-28
77%
10-13
FT
89%
8-9
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.1
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.1
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Courtney Williams
· ·
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.1
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.1
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.3
Bridget Carleton out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.3
(00:08.3) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Mercury] retain their timeout
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·8.3
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 89·MIN 83
−4pp
- OT·8.4
Alyssa Thomas personal take foul
PHX 89·MIN 83
+3pp
- OT·11.1
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·12.7
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·12.7
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 89·MIN 83
- OT·12.7
Napheesa Collier personal take foul
PHX 88·MIN 83
- OT·15.6
Satou Sabally vs. Bridget Carleton (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
PHX 88·MIN 83
- OT·15.6
Satou Sabally offensive rebound
PHX 88·MIN 83
−1pp
- OT·17.3
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 88·MIN 83
+1pp
- OT·17.3
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 88·MIN 83
- OT·17.3
Alanna Smith personal take foul
PHX 87·MIN 83
−2pp
- OT·17.3
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 87·MIN 83
−1pp
- OT·20.2
Napheesa Collier misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHX 87·MIN 83
−2pp
- OT·21.7
Lynx Full timeout
PHX 87·MIN 83
- OT·21.7
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 87·MIN 83
+3pp
- OT·21.7
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 86·MIN 83
−0.5pp
- OT·21.7
Alanna Smith shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 85·MIN 83
−17pp
- OT·30.1
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 85·MIN 83
- OT·31.0
Napheesa Collier makes 7-foot two point shot (Alanna Smith assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 85·MIN 83
+11pp
- OT·41.5
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 85·MIN 81
+1pp
- OT·45.0
Satou Sabally misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 85·MIN 81
+3pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
33-79
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-75
42
FG %
45
13-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-28
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-9
29
Assists
22
14
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 11 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
MIN
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4