Jul 30, 25sim 96
11101
5(H)107
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6LV
NY
21-12
7783
LV
19-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off New York Liberty, 83–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Emma Meesseman
C · #33
18.2Game score
24
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
21.4Game score
17
Pts
16
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY21-12
7783
LV19-14
NY21-12LV19-14
NY
21-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 33 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | |
| 32 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| 32 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 31 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 77 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, B. Stewart, N. Sabally | ||||||||
LV
19-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 34 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | |
| 39 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +4 | |
| 34 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +6 | |
| 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 83 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 10 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
38
18
Ast
15
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
May 17LV78@NY92
LV78@NY92Jul 9LV78@NY87
LV78@NY87Aug 14NY77@LV83today
NY77@LV83todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 7:14
NYE. Meesseman
CGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 34 min
17 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat NY 83-77. A. Wilson led with 17 PTS, 16 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 22-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
GS 9
LVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 7:14 · 65-67
+43pp→ 70% WP
NaLyssa Smith · makes free throw 1 of 2
NY4th Quarter · 4:19 · 71-72
+18pp→ 53% WP
Jewell Loyd · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 3:20 · 72-74
+19pp→ 68% WP
Emma Meesseman · bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 24 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 77 |
| LV | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 83 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · LV won 3
24
20
Q1
Meesseman 7
Gray 7
19
20
Q2
Meesseman 5
Loyd 7
20
21
Q3
Meesseman 6
Loyd 9
14
22
Q4
Ionescu 8
Smith 9
NY
LV
Shooting comparison
NY
LV
44%
28-64
FG
38%
25-65
28%
7-25
3PT
34%
10-29
88%
14-16
FT
82%
23-28
Play-by-play · 379 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 77·LV 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 77·LV 83
- Q4·8.3
Natasha Cloud bad pass (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
NY 77·LV 83
+1pp
- Q4·12.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 77·LV 83
- Q4·12.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 77·LV 83
−0.8pp
- Q4·12.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 77·LV 82
- Q4·12.1
Sabrina Ionescu personal foul
NY 77·LV 81
+3pp
- Q4·12.1
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
NY 77·LV 81
+2pp
- Q4·15.6
Sabrina Ionescu misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 77·LV 81
+4pp
- Q4·20.3
Kiah Stokes enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
NY 77·LV 81
+1pp
- Q4·20.8
Liberty Full timeout
NY 77·LV 81
- Q4·20.8
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
NY 77·LV 81
−5pp
- Q4·20.8
NaLyssa Smith offensive rebound
NY 77·LV 81
+4pp
- Q4·21.5
Jonquel Jones blocks A'ja Wilson 's 4-foot driving layup
·
NY 77·LV 81
−2pp
- Q4·34.3
Aces offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 77·LV 81
+6pp
- Q4·37.9
Jackie Young misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 77·LV 81
−4pp
- Q4·48.8
A'ja Wilson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 77·LV 81
+6pp
- Q4·50.8
Jackie Young misses two point shot
NY 77·LV 81
−4pp
- Q4·1:07
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
NY 77·LV 81
+2pp
- Q4·1:09
Jackie Young blocks Sabrina Ionescu 's 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
NY 77·LV 81
+6pp
- Q4·1:21
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 77·LV 81
−1pp
- Q4·1:21
Aces offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 77·LV 80
−5pp
- Q4·1:21
Jewell Loyd misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 77·LV 80
−4pp
- Q4·1:21
Natasha Cloud personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 77·LV 80
+10pp
- Q4·1:42
Sabrina Ionescu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 77·LV 80
−11pp
- Q4·1:53
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 74·LV 80
−3pp
- Q4·1:53
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 74·LV 79
+4pp
- Q4·1:53
Leonie Fiebich shooting foul
NY 74·LV 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:53
A'ja Wilson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 74·LV 78
+6pp
- Q4·1:53
A'ja Wilson misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 74·LV 78
−6pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
LV
Home
28-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-65
44
FG %
38
7-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
14-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-28
18
Assists
15
11
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
LV
45.9%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.9%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6