Aug 16, 25sim 98
1786
11(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+35PHX
IND
17-14
6095
PHX
19-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Indiana Fever, 95–60. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Sophie Cunningham
G · #8
10.9Game score
18
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
24.5Game score
18
Pts
11
Reb
10
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND17-14
6095
PHX19-11
IND17-14PHX19-11
IND
17-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -15 | |
| 26 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -9 | |
| 35 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -39 | |
| 26 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -14 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -11 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -16 | |
| 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
| 27 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -25 | |
| Team | 60 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 20 | ||
| DNP: C. Clark | ||||||||
PHX
19-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +32 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 21 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 27 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +24 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 24 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +25 | |
| 23 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +26 | |
| Team | 95 | 44 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 13 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
44
12
Ast
25
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jul 30PHX101@IND107
PHX101@IND107Aug 8IND60@PHX95today
IND60@PHX95todaySep 3IND79@PHX85
IND79@PHX85Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 2:01
INDS. Cunningham
GGame leader · 26 min
18 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 30 minTriple-double
18 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
PHX beat IND 95-60. A. Thomas stuffed the line with 18 PTS, 11 REB, and 10 AST. PHX outscored the other side 26-11 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST
GS 21
Bench(6)
15 PTS · 16 REB · 0 AST
GS 7
PHXstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST
GS 48
Bench(6)
42 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 2:31 · 10-18
+6pp→ 28% WP
Alyssa Thomas · misses driving layup
PHX1st Quarter · 2:01 · 12-21
+6pp→ 76% WP
DeWanna Bonner · makes 25-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 16 | 20 | 11 | 13 | 60 |
| PHX | 26 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 95 |
Period scoring
IND won 0 · PHX won 4
16
26
Q1
Mitchell 8
Sabally 8
20
21
Q2
Cunningham 12
Makani 5
11
26
Q3
Cunningham 6
Thomas 8
13
22
Q4
Mitchell 3
Bonner 16
IND
PHX
Shooting comparison
IND
PHX
34%
23-67
FG
44%
34-77
23%
7-30
3PT
34%
10-29
54%
7-13
FT
94%
17-18
Play-by-play · 419 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 60·PHX 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 60·PHX 95
- Q4·19.6
Kelsey Mitchell out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 60·PHX 95
- Q4·29.2
Lexi Held makes 2-foot layup (Kathryn Westbeld assists)
·
IND 60·PHX 95
- Q4·45.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 60·PHX 93
- Q4·45.1
Lexi Held shooting foul
IND 59·PHX 93
- Q4·45.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
IND 59·PHX 93
- Q4·51.1
Natasha Mack makes 2-foot layup (Kalani Brown assists)
·
IND 57·PHX 93
- Q4·58.0
Damiris Dantas personal foul
IND 57·PHX 91
- Q4·1:10
Lexie Hull makes two point shot
IND 57·PHX 91
- Q4·1:12
Kathryn Westbeld bad pass (Brianna Turner steals)
·
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·1:28
Kelsey Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·1:36
Lexie Hull offensive rebound
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·1:40
Kelsey Mitchell misses running pullup jump shot
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·1:43
Chloe Bibby defensive rebound
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·1:46
Kitija Laksa misses 9-foot two point shot
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·2:00
Kelsey Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·2:10
Kitija Laksa makes free throw 3 of 3
IND 55·PHX 91
- Q4·2:10
Kitija Laksa makes free throw 2 of 3
IND 55·PHX 90
- Q4·2:10
Kitija Laksa makes free throw 1 of 3
IND 55·PHX 89
- Q4·2:10
Lexie Hull shooting foul
IND 55·PHX 88
- Q4·2:22
Damiris Dantas makes 3-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
IND 55·PHX 88
- Q4·2:34
Lexi Held makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kalani Brown assists)
·
IND 53·PHX 88
- Q4·2:47
Kitija Laksa defensive rebound
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·2:49
Damiris Dantas misses 10-foot jumper
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·2:50
Damiris Dantas offensive rebound
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·2:52
Lexie Hull misses 12-foot jumper
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·3:01
Natasha Mack personal foul
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·3:04
Kathryn Westbeld bad pass (Chloe Bibby steals)
·
IND 53·PHX 85
- Q4·3:21
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
IND 53·PHX 85
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
23-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-77
34
FG %
44
7-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
7-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-18
12
Assists
25
20
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
PHX
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
32.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9