Jun 22, 25sim 96
979
14(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9ATL
NY
11-5
8190
ATL
11-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off New York Liberty, 90–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Natasha Cloud
G · #9
18.4Game score
20
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
18.5Game score
21
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY11-5
8190
ATL11-6
NY11-5ATL11-6
NY
11-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -14 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -11 | |
| 34 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 32 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -19 | |
| 21 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 23 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 81 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: M. Davis | ||||||||
ATL
11-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +10 | |
| 28 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 36 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 33 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +6 | |
| 24 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 90 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, M. Caldwell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
53
18
Ast
27
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 17ATL81@NY86
ATL81@NY86Jun 29NY81@ATL90today
NY81@ATL90todayJul 13ATL72@NY79
ATL72@NY79Aug 23NY62@ATL78
NY62@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 19pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:00
NYN. Cloud
GGame leader · 34 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 32 min
21 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
ATL beat NY 90-81. B. Jones led with 21 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 29-19 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
ATLstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY1st Quarter · 2:23 · 17-20
+6pp→ 44% WP
Breanna Stewart · makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Natasha Cloud assists)
ATL1st Quarter · 1:20 · 18-23
+7pp→ 62% WP
Brionna Jones · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL2nd Quarter · 10:00 · 19-29
+19pp→ 76% WP
Nyara Sabally · enters the game for Breanna Stewart
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 19 | 15 | 19 | 28 | 81 |
| ATL | 29 | 18 | 16 | 27 | 90 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · ATL won 2
19
29
Q1
Cloud 9
Jones 8
15
18
Q2
Harrison 4
Sabally 7
19
16
Q3
Stewart 7
Jones 9
28
27
Q4
Ionescu 8
Gray 10
NY
ATL
Shooting comparison
NY
ATL
44%
30-68
FG
53%
37-70
35%
9-26
3PT
21%
4-19
80%
12-15
FT
55%
12-22
Play-by-play · 395 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·7.1
shot clock turnover
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·31.1
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·33.1
Jaylyn Sherrod misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·47.0
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·49.1
Naz Hillmon misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·1:05
Marine Johannes makes 25-foot three pointer
NY 81·ATL 90
- Q4·1:12
Brionna Jones makes layup (Naz Hillmon assists)
·
NY 78·ATL 90
- Q4·1:31
Isabelle Harrison makes layup (Marine Johannes assists)
·
NY 78·ATL 88
- Q4·1:41
Nyara Sabally offensive rebound
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·1:43
Kennedy Burke misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·1:45
shot clock turnover
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·1:49
Dream offensive team rebound
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·1:53
Jordin Canada misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·2:09
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·2:09
Dream Full timeout
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·2:20
Kennedy Burke makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)
·
NY 76·ATL 88
- Q4·2:31
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
NY 73·ATL 88
- Q4·2:33
Brionna Jones misses 6-foot two point shot
NY 73·ATL 88
- Q4·2:47
Marine Johannes makes 24-foot three pointer (Nyara Sabally assists)
·
NY 73·ATL 88
- Q4·2:52
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 70·ATL 88
- Q4·2:52
Marine Johannes enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 70·ATL 88
- Q4·2:52
Allisha Gray personal foul
NY 70·ATL 88
- Q4·3:01
Allisha Gray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
·
NY 70·ATL 88
- Q4·3:23
Natasha Cloud makes driving layup
NY 70·ATL 85
- Q4·3:45
Allisha Gray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
·
NY 68·ATL 85
- Q4·3:55
Sabrina Ionescu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kennedy Burke assists)
·
NY 68·ATL 82
- Q4·4:07
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 65·ATL 82
- Q4·4:07
Nyara Sabally enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
NY 65·ATL 82
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
30-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-70
44
FG %
53
9-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-19
12-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-22
18
Assists
27
13
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
ATL
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8