Aug 16, 25sim 98
1786
11(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+23ATL
PHX
16-11
7295
ATL
17-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Phoenix Mercury, 95–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
13.7Game score
19
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
22.1Game score
26
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX16-11
7295
ATL17-11
PHX16-11ATL17-11
PHX
16-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -33 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 26 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -24 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 25 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 22 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +10 | |
| 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -29 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 72 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 9 | ||
ATL
17-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +15 | |
| 34 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +20 | |
| 28 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +27 | |
| 26 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +32 | |
| 31 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 95 | 37 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
52
16
Ast
27
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
Jul 24ATL90@PHX79
ATL90@PHX79Aug 1PHX72@ATL95today
PHX72@ATL95todayAug 10ATL74@PHX66
ATL74@PHX66Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 5:23
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 26 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 28 min
26 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
ATL beat PHX 95-72. A. Gray paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-8 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST
GS 34
Bench(6)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
ATLstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST
GS 80
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 7:04 · 13-4
+6pp→ 57% WP
Kathryn Westbeld · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
ATL1st Quarter · 6:04 · 15-12
+6pp→ 57% WP
Maya Caldwell · makes 24-foot three point shot (Jordin Canada assists)
ATL1st Quarter · 5:23 · 15-15
+7pp→ 66% WP
Maya Caldwell · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 23 | 19 | 8 | 22 | 72 |
| ATL | 34 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 95 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · ATL won 3
23
34
Q1
Copper 10
Gray 14
19
24
Q2
Sabally 5
Jones 8
8
26
Q3
Thomas 4
Hillmon 9
22
11
Q4
Bonner 7
Gray 3
PHX
ATL
Shooting comparison
PHX
ATL
39%
27-70
FG
52%
34-66
25%
4-16
3PT
42%
13-31
82%
14-17
FT
78%
14-18
Play-by-play · 368 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·20.2
Taylor Thierry defensive rebound
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·23.6
Lexi Held misses 11-foot two point shot
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·32.5
Kamiah Smalls kicked ball violation
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·36.7
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·42.0
Natasha Mack blocks Taylor Thierry 's 24-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·45.6
Monique Akoa Makani lost ball turnover (Te-Hina Paopao steals)
·
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·47.3
Taylor Thierry makes two point shot
PHX 72·ATL 95
- Q4·50.5
Monique Akoa Makani lost ball turnover (Taylor Thierry steals)
·
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:04
Kitija Laksa defensive rebound
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Dream offensive team rebound
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Taylor Thierry misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Kamiah Smalls enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Taylor Thierry misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Kalani Brown shooting foul
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:07
Taylor Thierry offensive rebound
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:09
Maya Caldwell misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:34
Monique Akoa Makani makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 72·ATL 93
- Q4·1:41
Te-Hina Paopao lost ball turnover (Kalani Brown steals)
·
PHX 70·ATL 93
- Q4·2:06
Kalani Brown makes layup (Natasha Mack assists)
·
PHX 70·ATL 93
- Q4·2:19
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 68·ATL 93
- Q4·2:20
Maya Caldwell misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 68·ATL 93
- Q4·2:36
Kalani Brown makes layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
PHX 68·ATL 93
- Q4·2:47
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 66·ATL 93
- Q4·2:47
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
PHX 66·ATL 93
- Q4·2:49
Taylor Thierry misses driving layup
PHX 66·ATL 93
- Q4·3:09
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
PHX 66·ATL 93
- Q4·3:14
Nia Coffey blocks Natasha Mack 's 5-foot layup
·
PHX 66·ATL 93
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
27-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-66
39
FG %
52
4-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-31
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-18
16
Assists
27
9
Turnovers
7
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
ATL
43.4%
FG%
44.9
43.5%
32.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
85.6
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8