Jun 29, 25sim 96
981
20(H)90
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10SEA
NY
10-3
7989
SEA
9-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off New York Liberty, 89–79.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
14.6Game score
18
Pts
9
Reb
7
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
23.9Game score
26
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY10-3
7989
SEA9-5
NY10-3SEA9-5
NY
10-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 31 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | |
| 21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | |
| 36 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -10 | |
| 22 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 79 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 20 | ||
| DNP: J. Jones, S. Ionescu, M. Davis | ||||||||
SEA
9-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +8 | |
| 37 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 28 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 36 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4 | |
| Team | 89 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
43
21
Ast
24
Season series
SEA wins series 2-1
Jun 22NY79@SEA89today
NY79@SEA89todayJul 6SEA79@NY70
SEA79@NY70Sep 6NY84@SEA76
NY84@SEA76Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 1:30
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 37 min
18 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 34 min
26 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
SEA beat NY 89-79. N. Ogwumike paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 41
Bench(3)
19 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
SEAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST
GS 63
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 4:03 · 72-78
+12pp→ 26% WP
Skylar Diggins · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 3:20 · 74-80
+14pp→ 90% WP
Breanna Stewart · out of bounds lost ball turnover
SEA4th Quarter · 1:30 · 79-85
+15pp→ 91% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gabby Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 79 |
| SEA | 22 | 21 | 25 | 21 | 89 |
Period scoring
NY won 0 · SEA won 3
22
22
Q1
Gardner 5
Wheeler 7
20
21
Q2
Johannes 8
Diggins 8
19
25
Q3
Burke 7
Diggins 12
18
21
Q4
Stewart 6
Ogwumike 13
NY
SEA
Shooting comparison
NY
SEA
44%
28-63
FG
43%
35-82
33%
8-24
3PT
31%
8-26
94%
15-16
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 79·SEA 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 79·SEA 89
- Q4·20.1
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 79·SEA 89
- Q4·20.1
Storm offensive team rebound
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·20.1
Gabby Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·20.1
Nyara Sabally personal foul
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·27.0
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·30.1
Marine Johannes misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·34.0
Liberty timeout
NY 79·SEA 88
- Q4·34.0
Nneka Ogwumike makes layup (Gabby Williams assists)
·
NY 79·SEA 88
+2pp
- Q4·39.1
Marine Johannes kicked ball violation
NY 79·SEA 86
- Q4·39.1
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 79·SEA 86
−2pp
- Q4·39.1
Jaylyn Sherrod away from play foulBIG MOMENT
NY 79·SEA 85
+5pp
- Q4·40.0
Storm Full timeout
NY 79·SEA 85
- Q4·40.0
[Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Liberty] charged with a timeout
NY 79·SEA 85
−3pp
- Q4·40.0
Liberty Full timeout
NY 79·SEA 85
- Q4·40.0
Storm defensive team rebound
NY 79·SEA 85
+1pp
- Q4·43.0
Natasha Cloud misses 23-foot three point shot
NY 79·SEA 85
+3pp
- Q4·46.1
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
NY 79·SEA 85
−0.6pp
- Q4·49.1
Skylar Diggins misses two point shot
NY 79·SEA 85
−2pp
- Q4·1:12
Natasha Cloud bad pass (Ezi Magbegor steals)
·
NY 79·SEA 85
+5pp
- Q4·1:20
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 79·SEA 85
- Q4·1:30
Nneka Ogwumike makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gabby Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 79·SEA 85
+15pp
- Q4·1:52
Natasha Cloud makes driving layup (Breanna Stewart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 79·SEA 82
−7pp
- Q4·2:01
Liberty Full timeout
NY 77·SEA 82
- Q4·2:01
Nneka Ogwumike makes 14-foot jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 77·SEA 82
+7pp
- Q4·2:20
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 77·SEA 80
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:20
Liberty offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 76·SEA 80
+7pp
- Q4·2:20
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 76·SEA 80
- Q4·2:20
Ezi Magbegor shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 76·SEA 80
−7pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
28-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-82
44
FG %
43
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-26
15-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
21
Assists
24
20
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
SEA
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6