Aug 20, 25sim 95
1198
129689(H)91
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8NY
NY
21-11
10597
LA
15-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 105–97.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Emma Meesseman
C · #33
22.1Game score
24
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
23.7Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY21-11
10597
LA15-17
NY21-11LA15-17
NY
21-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 31 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +7 | |
| 32 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
| 32 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 32 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| Team | 105 | 34 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, B. Stewart, N. Sabally, K. Burke | ||||||||
LA
15-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -5 | |
| 35 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 31 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 34 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 28 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| Team | 97 | 34 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 7 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
47
27
Ast
23
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
Jul 3LA79@NY89
LA79@NY89Jul 26LA101@NY99
LA101@NY99Aug 13NY105@LA97today
NY105@LA97todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 9:44
NYE. Meesseman
CGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 34 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
NY beat LA 105-97. E. Meesseman led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 22-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 27 REB · 19 AST
GS 81
Bench(3)
15 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST
GS 14
LAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 29 REB · 21 AST
GS 72
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY2nd Quarter · 1:31 · 50-44
+8pp→ 79% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)
NY3rd Quarter · 25.3 · 77-70
+8pp→ 88% WP
Emma Meesseman · makes free throw 1 of 2
LA4th Quarter · 9:44 · 78-75
+9pp→ 27% WP
Julie Vanloo · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 28 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 105 |
| LA | 30 | 14 | 28 | 25 | 97 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · LA won 1
28
30
Q1
Jones 8
Plum 10
22
14
Q2
Ionescu 8
Stevens 9
28
28
Q3
Fiebich 10
Hamby 8
27
25
Q4
Meesseman 7
Plum 9
NY
LA
Shooting comparison
NY
LA
56%
38-68
FG
47%
36-77
50%
14-28
3PT
29%
9-31
79%
15-19
FT
84%
16-19
Play-by-play · 371 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 105·LA 97
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 105·LA 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 105·LA 97
- Q4·12.5
Liberty timeout
NY 105·LA 97
- Q4·12.5
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 105·LA 97
- Q4·12.5
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 105·LA 96
- Q4·12.5
Leonie Fiebich shooting foul
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·13.0
Kelsey Plum offensive rebound
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·13.0
Rickea Jackson misses 2-foot tip shot
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·13.7
Rickea Jackson offensive rebound
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·16.7
Rickea Jackson misses layup
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·22.9
Azura Stevens enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·22.9
Sparks Full timeout
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·22.9
Leonie Fiebich makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 105·LA 95
- Q4·22.9
Leonie Fiebich makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 104·LA 95
- Q4·22.9
Rickea Jackson personal foul
NY 103·LA 95
- Q4·31.4
Emma Meesseman defensive rebound
NY 103·LA 95
- Q4·33.6
Rickea Jackson misses free throw 1 of 1
NY 103·LA 95
−1pp
- Q4·33.6
Natasha Cloud shooting foul
NY 103·LA 95
+1pp
- Q4·33.6
Rickea Jackson makes 2-foot layup (Dearica Hamby assists)
·
NY 103·LA 95
- Q4·36.9
Sparks timeout
NY 103·LA 93
- Q4·36.9
Emma Meesseman makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 103·LA 93
- Q4·36.9
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·36.9
Emma Meesseman misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·36.9
Rickea Jackson personal foul
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·39.6
Rae Burrell enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·39.6
Liberty Full timeout
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·40.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 102·LA 93
- Q4·40.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 102·LA 92
- Q4·40.1
Jonquel Jones shooting foul
NY 102·LA 91
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
LA
Home
38-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-77
56
FG %
47
14-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
15-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-19
27
Assists
23
11
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
LA
45.9%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
35.0%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶91.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8