Aug 6, 25sim 95
591
6(H)100
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8PHX
PHX
23-14
9284
LA
17-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 92–84.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
21.4Game score
12
Pts
16
Reb
15
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
24.4Game score
25
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX23-14
9284
LA17-19
PHX23-14LA17-19
PHX
23-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +15 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 34 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 28 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 26 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 29 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| Team | 92 | 32 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams | ||||||||
LA
17-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 25 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 27 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -11 | |
| 37 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 34 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 23 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| Team | 84 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
48
28
Ast
19
Season series
PHX wins series 3-1
May 22LA86@PHX89
LA86@PHX89Jun 1PHX85@LA80
PHX85@LA80Aug 27PHX92@LA84today
PHX92@LA84todaySep 10LA88@PHX83
LA88@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 1:55
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 35 minTriple-double
12 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 31 min
25 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat LA 92-84. A. Thomas stuffed the line with 12 PTS, 16 REB, and 15 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
39 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
LAstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST
GS 56
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 1:55 · 22-16
+12pp→ 65% WP
Kahleah Copper · misses driving layup
PHX2nd Quarter · 1:43 · 43-36
+9pp→ 73% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
PHX2nd Quarter · 6.4 · 48-40
+8pp→ 76% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 23-foot three point shot (Lexi Held assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 24 | 24 | 20 | 24 | 92 |
| LA | 18 | 22 | 17 | 27 | 84 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · LA won 1
24
18
Q1
Sabally 10
Jackson 10
24
22
Q2
Whitcomb 9
Brink 13
20
17
Q3
Copper 6
Jackson 8
24
27
Q4
Thomas 7
Plum 10
PHX
LA
Shooting comparison
PHX
LA
48%
33-69
FG
48%
31-65
44%
11-25
3PT
29%
7-24
83%
15-18
FT
88%
15-17
Play-by-play · 375 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 92·LA 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 92·LA 84
- Q4·4.0
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 92·LA 84
- Q4·5.7
Rae Burrell misses 5-foot jumper
PHX 92·LA 84
- Q4·6.5
Rae Burrell offensive rebound
PHX 92·LA 84
- Q4·9.3
Azura Stevens misses layup
PHX 92·LA 84
−0.6pp
- Q4·23.3
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 92·LA 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·23.3
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 91·LA 84
- Q4·23.3
Kelsey Plum personal foul
PHX 90·LA 84
−0.9pp
- Q4·25.1
Kelsey Plum makes 3-foot two point shot
PHX 90·LA 84
- Q4·37.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 90·LA 82
+0.7pp
- Q4·37.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 89·LA 82
- Q4·37.0
Julie Allemand personal foul
PHX 88·LA 82
−2pp
- Q4·44.9
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 1
PHX 88·LA 82
−2pp
- Q4·44.9
DeWanna Bonner shooting foul
PHX 88·LA 81
+3pp
- Q4·44.9
Rae Burrell makes 1-foot layup (Julie Allemand assists)
·
PHX 88·LA 81
- Q4·51.5
8 second turnover
PHX 88·LA 79
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:00
Rae Burrell makes 2-foot layup (Dearica Hamby assists)
·
PHX 88·LA 79
- Q4·1:06
Sparks timeout
PHX 88·LA 77
- Q4·1:06
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 88·LA 77
- Q4·1:06
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 87·LA 77
- Q4·1:06
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 87·LA 77
−2pp
- Q4·1:06
Rae Burrell personal take foul
PHX 87·LA 77
- Q4·1:07
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 87·LA 77
- Q4·1:07
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 87·LA 76
- Q4·1:07
Sami Whitcomb shooting foul
PHX 87·LA 75
- Q4·1:15
DeWanna Bonner makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 87·LA 75
- Q4·1:27
Rae Burrell personal take foul
PHX 84·LA 75
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:35
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·LA 75
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:35
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 84·LA 74
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LA
Home
33-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-65
48
FG %
48
11-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-24
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-17
28
Assists
19
13
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
LA
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.0%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶91.5
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.8
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8