Jul 23, 25sim 98
2072
17(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16PHX
PHX
16-9
8872
WSH
12-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 88–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
28.4Game score
27
Pts
11
Reb
8
Ast
WSH · top performer
Jade Melbourne
G · #5
14.1Game score
13
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX16-9
8872
WSH12-13
PHX16-9WSH12-13
PHX
16-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +16 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | |
| 28 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
| 26 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 26 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 22 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +12 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 19 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 88 | 33 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown | ||||||||
WSH
12-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 27 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | |
| 26 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 27 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -17 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 31 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| Team | 72 | 32 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 17 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
38
22
Ast
19
Season series
PHX wins series 3-0
May 25WSH62@PHX68
WSH62@PHX68Jul 27PHX88@WSH72today
PHX88@WSH72todaySep 4PHX75@WSH69
PHX75@WSH69Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 23pp · 3rd Quarter · 19.1
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 33 min
27 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
WSHJ. Melbourne
GGame leader · 31 min
13 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
PHX beat WSH 88-72. A. Thomas paced them with 27 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST. PHX outscored the other side 26-12 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 64
Bench(6)
17 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
GS 11
WSHstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST
GS 22
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 5:22 · 9-6
+12pp→ 63% WP
Kiki Iriafen · offensive foul
PHX3rd Quarter · 19.1 · 66-58
+23pp→ 87% WP
Kiki Iriafen · misses 22-foot jumper
WSH3rd Quarter · 1:59 · 62-55
+12pp→ 13% WP
Lucy Olsen · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 21 | 21 | 26 | 20 | 88 |
| WSH | 23 | 23 | 12 | 14 | 72 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · WSH won 2
21
23
Q1
Thomas 6
Austin 16
21
23
Q2
Thomas 8
Austin 6
26
12
Q3
Thomas 11
Iriafen 7
20
14
Q4
Makani 7
Laksa 10
PHX
WSH
Shooting comparison
PHX
WSH
51%
35-68
FG
38%
24-63
24%
5-21
3PT
31%
5-16
93%
13-14
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 402 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 88·WSH 72
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 88·WSH 72
- Q4·11.0
Sonia Citron bad pass (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
·
PHX 88·WSH 72
- Q4·17.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 88·WSH 72
- Q4·17.1
DeWanna Bonner enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
PHX 87·WSH 72
- Q4·17.1
Kiana Williams enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
PHX 87·WSH 72
- Q4·17.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 87·WSH 72
- Q4·17.1
Jade Melbourne personal foul
PHX 86·WSH 72
- Q4·40.0
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 86·WSH 72
- Q4·40.0
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 86·WSH 71
- Q4·40.0
Satou Sabally personal foul
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·46.0
DeWanna Bonner personal foul
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·55.1
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·56.1
Alyssa Thomas misses 14-foot jumper
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:13
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:16
Lucy Olsen misses 29-foot three point shot
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:20
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Jade Melbourne steals)
·
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:31
Jade Melbourne personal foul
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:39
Sonia Citron lost ball turnover (Alyssa Thomas steals)
·
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:44
Monique Akoa Makani bad pass (Jade Melbourne steals)
·
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·1:51
Sonia Citron lost ball turnover (Satou Sabally steals)
·
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·2:01
Monique Akoa Makani makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 86·WSH 70
- Q4·2:20
Emily Engstler out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·2:28
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·2:28
Emily Engstler enters the game for Shakira Austin
·
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·2:28
Kahleah Copper personal foul
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·2:41
Jade Melbourne defensive rebound
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·2:43
Kahleah Copper misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·3:07
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 83·WSH 70
- Q4·3:12
Brittney Sykes misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·WSH 70
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
35-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-63
51
FG %
38
5-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-16
13-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
22
Assists
19
13
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH2.9± 2.6low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
WSH
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶44.8%
32.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
28.8%
85.6
PPG
◀
86.0
82.8
18.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.5
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.7