Jun 30, 25sim 98
1457
129689(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17IND
ATL
12-8
8299
IND
10-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Atlanta Dream, 99–82.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Jordin Canada
G · #3
24.3Game score
30
Pts
3
Reb
8
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
20.5Game score
25
Pts
0
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL12-8
8299
IND10-10
ATL12-8IND10-10
ATL
12-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 26 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -13 | |
| 36 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 37 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -20 | |
| 26 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -15 | |
| 23 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 82 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 11 | ||
IND
10-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 33 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 25 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 15 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 26 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 30 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +24 | |
| 25 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +24 | |
| Team | 99 | 35 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, M. Timpson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
46
19
Ast
27
Playoff series
IND wins series 2-1
Sep 14IND68@ATL80
IND68@ATL80Sep 16ATL60@IND77
ATL60@IND77Sep 18IND87@ATL85
IND87@ATL85Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:17
ATLJ. Canada
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 25 min
25 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat ATL 99-82. K. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 30-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 49
Bench(6)
16 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 15
INDstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST
GS 59
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 1:17 · 38-40
+10pp→ 59% WP
Aliyah Boston · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 5:11 · 57-55
+10pp→ 57% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
IND3rd Quarter · 4:34 · 57-58
+10pp→ 53% WP
Sophie Cunningham · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 23 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 82 |
| IND | 21 | 19 | 29 | 30 | 99 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · IND won 2
23
21
Q1
Canada 10
Howard 5
22
19
Q2
Canada 16
Mitchell 11
20
29
Q3
Howard 9
Mitchell 8
17
30
Q4
Coffey 7
Boston 8
ATL
IND
Shooting comparison
ATL
IND
45%
30-67
FG
46%
35-76
38%
11-29
3PT
37%
11-30
79%
11-14
FT
90%
18-20
Play-by-play · 401 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 82·IND 99
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 82·IND 99
- Q4·22.0
Nia Coffey makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 82·IND 99
- Q4·22.0
Damiris Dantas shooting foul
ATL 81·IND 99
- Q4·22.0
Nia Coffey makes 5-foot two point shot (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
ATL 81·IND 99
- Q4·32.1
Sophie Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)
·
ATL 79·IND 99
- Q4·36.0
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 79·IND 96
- Q4·36.0
Fever offensive team rebound
ATL 79·IND 96
- Q4·39.1
Sophie Cunningham misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 79·IND 96
- Q4·51.1
Nia Coffey makes driving layup (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
ATL 79·IND 96
- Q4·1:00
Lexie Hull makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aari McDonald assists)
·
ATL 77·IND 96
- Q4·1:12
Nia Coffey traveling
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:25
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:25
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:25
Lexie Hull enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:25
Sydney Colson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:25
Dream Full timeout
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:29
Aari McDonald makes two point shot (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
ATL 77·IND 93
- Q4·1:33
Jordin Canada bad pass (Kelsey Mitchell steals)
·
ATL 77·IND 91
- Q4·1:39
Kelsey Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)
·
ATL 77·IND 91
- Q4·1:50
Nia Coffey out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 77·IND 88
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:56
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
ATL 77·IND 88
- Q4·1:58
Damiris Dantas misses 8-foot two point shot
ATL 77·IND 88
- Q4·2:14
Fever Full timeout
ATL 77·IND 88
- Q4·2:17
Nia Coffey makes 3-foot layup (Allisha Gray assists)
·
ATL 77·IND 88
- Q4·2:31
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
ATL 75·IND 88
- Q4·2:32
Damiris Dantas misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 75·IND 88
- Q4·2:32
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
ATL 75·IND 88
- Q4·2:32
Damiris Dantas makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 75·IND 88
- Q4·2:32
Nia Coffey loose ball foul
ATL 75·IND 87
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
30-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-76
45
FG %
46
11-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-30
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-20
19
Assists
27
11
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
IND
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.1%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4