Jul 27, 25sim 97
1188
16(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3PHX
PHX
20-13
8582
SEA
17-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 85–82. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
23.1Game score
19
Pts
10
Reb
11
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
20.9Game score
24
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX20-13
8582
SEA17-18
PHX20-13SEA17-18
PHX
20-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +6 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 23 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 27 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 35 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 27 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 85 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Williams, M. Akoa Makani | ||||||||
SEA
17-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 34 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 28 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 29 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | |
| 34 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 18 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 82 | 30 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
47
21
Ast
19
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18SEA59@PHX81
SEA59@PHX81May 24PHX70@SEA77
PHX70@SEA77Jun 8SEA89@PHX77
SEA89@PHX77Aug 17PHX85@SEA82today
PHX85@SEA82todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 26pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:19
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 37 minTriple-double
19 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 34 min
24 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat SEA 85-82. A. Thomas stuffed the line with 19 PTS, 10 REB, and 11 AST. Alyssa Thomas's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 48
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 13
SEAstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(3)
14 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA3rd Quarter · 1:19 · 62-60
+26pp→ 47% WP
Alyssa Thomas · bad pass (Erica Wheeler steals)
PHX4th Quarter · 3:16 · 77-75
+21pp→ 65% WP
Brittney Sykes · bad pass (Alyssa Thomas steals)
SEA4th Quarter · 2:21 · 77-78
+20pp→ 62% WP
Erica Wheeler · makes 25-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 20 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 85 |
| SEA | 17 | 20 | 23 | 22 | 82 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · SEA won 1
20
17
Q1
Copper 4
Diggins 6
23
20
Q2
Whitcomb 8
Ogwumike 11
24
23
Q3
Thomas 6
Williams 6
18
22
Q4
Copper 8
Full 26
PHX
SEA
Shooting comparison
PHX
SEA
48%
31-64
FG
47%
34-72
31%
8-26
3PT
18%
4-22
83%
15-18
FT
77%
10-13
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·0.1
Storm offensive team rebound
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·0.5
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 85·SEA 82
−3pp
- Q4·2.9
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·2.9
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·2.9
Storm timeout
PHX 85·SEA 82
- Q4·2.9
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 85·SEA 82
+2pp
- Q4·2.9
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 84·SEA 82
−0.7pp
- Q4·2.9
Erica Wheeler personal foul
PHX 83·SEA 82
- Q4·3.3
Ezi Magbegor personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 83·SEA 82
−20pp
- Q4·8.4
Brittney Sykes makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 83·SEA 82
+6pp
- Q4·11.5
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Brittney Sykes steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 83·SEA 80
+9pp
- Q4·12.5
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
PHX 83·SEA 80
- Q4·12.5
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 83·SEA 80
- Q4·12.5
Nneka Ogwumike makes layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 83·SEA 80
+6pp
- Q4·14.0
Satou Sabally lost ball turnover (Skylar Diggins steals)
·
PHX 83·SEA 78
+3pp
- Q4·14.5
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
PHX 83·SEA 78
−1pp
- Q4·16.0
Nneka Ogwumike misses driving layup
PHX 83·SEA 78
−5pp
- Q4·21.2
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
PHX 83·SEA 78
- Q4·21.2
Storm Full timeout
PHX 83·SEA 78
- Q4·21.7
Alyssa Thomas makes 10-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 83·SEA 78
−11pp
- Q4·35.8
Kahleah Copper vs. Skylar Diggins (DeWanna Bonner gains possession)
· ·
PHX 81·SEA 78
−0.7pp
- Q4·39.0
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
PHX 81·SEA 78
- Q4·39.0
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 81·SEA 78
−4pp
- Q4·42.1
Nneka Ogwumike misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·SEA 78
−11pp
- Q4·53.3
Kahleah Copper makes driving layup (Satou Sabally assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 81·SEA 78
−9pp
- Q4·1:00
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 79·SEA 78
−2pp
- Q4·1:02
Skylar Diggins misses 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 79·SEA 78
−5pp
- Q4·1:17
Storm Full timeout
PHX 79·SEA 78
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
31-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-72
48
FG %
47
8-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-22
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-13
21
Assists
19
17
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 11 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
SEA
43.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
85.6
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
18.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6