Aug 6, 25sim 90
1664
19(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13WSH
WSH
14-17
9178
DAL
8-24
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 91–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
16.1Game score
23
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
15.1Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH14-17
9178
DAL8-24
WSH14-17DAL8-24
WSH
14-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +11 | |
| 22 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 20 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 32 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| 21 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +12 | |
| 26 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +5 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 91 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 17 | ||
DAL
8-24
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
| 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 19 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 32 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | |
| 27 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
| 19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 78 | 26 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 13 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
37
21
Ast
18
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Jun 22DAL88@WSH91
DAL88@WSH91Jun 29WSH71@DAL79
WSH71@DAL79Aug 10WSH91@DAL78today
WSH91@DAL78todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 6:07
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 23 min
23 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 32 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
WSH beat DAL 91-78. K. Iriafen led with 23 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. WSH outscored the other side 33-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 50
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 20
DALstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
28 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL1st Quarter · 6:20 · 5-8
+10pp→ 71% WP
Luisa Geiselsoder · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
WSH4th Quarter · 9:37 · 63-58
+11pp→ 82% WP
Haley Jones · shooting foul
DAL4th Quarter · 6:07 · 71-64
+15pp→ 18% WP
Emily Engstler · bad pass (Paige Bueckers steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 12 | 33 | 28 | 91 |
| DAL | 23 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 78 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · DAL won 2
18
23
Q1
Engstler 5
Geiselsoder 6
12
18
Q2
Dolson 5
Bueckers 6
33
17
Q3
Iriafen 13
Geiselsoder 4
28
20
Q4
Citron 7
Quinerly 6
WSH
DAL
Shooting comparison
WSH
DAL
54%
32-59
FG
37%
23-63
40%
6-15
3PT
35%
8-23
81%
21-26
FT
83%
24-29
Play-by-play · 419 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 91·DAL 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 91·DAL 78
- Q4·4.0
Aziaha James makes 11-foot jumper (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
·
WSH 91·DAL 78
- Q4·15.5
Alysha Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 91·DAL 76
- Q4·15.5
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 90·DAL 76
- Q4·15.5
JJ Quinerly personal foul
WSH 89·DAL 76
- Q4·30.0
JJ Quinerly makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 89·DAL 76
- Q4·30.0
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
WSH 89·DAL 75
- Q4·30.0
Jade Melbourne shooting foul
WSH 89·DAL 75
- Q4·30.0
JJ Quinerly makes driving layup
WSH 89·DAL 75
- Q4·33.9
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
WSH 89·DAL 73
- Q4·36.2
Kiki Iriafen misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 89·DAL 73
- Q4·53.5
JJ Quinerly makes 24-foot three pointer
WSH 89·DAL 73
- Q4·1:01
Emily Engstler makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lucy Olsen assists)
·
WSH 89·DAL 70
- Q4·1:24
Myisha Hines-Allen out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:30
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:30
Wings offensive team rebound
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:31
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 2-foot tip shot
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:31
Myisha Hines-Allen offensive rebound
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:32
Aziaha James misses 12-foot jumper
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:48
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 86·DAL 70
- Q4·1:48
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 85·DAL 70
- Q4·1:48
JJ Quinerly personal foul
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:04
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:06
Aziaha James misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:12
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:15
Maddy Siegrist enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:15
Alysha Clark misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:15
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
WSH 84·DAL 70
- Q4·2:15
Arike Ogunbowale shooting foul
WSH 84·DAL 70
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
32-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-63
54
FG %
37
6-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-23
21-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-29
21
Assists
18
17
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
DAL
45.7%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3