Aug 1, 25sim 94
12968973
19(H)66
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1LA
LA
16-17
9796
DAL
9-25
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 97–96. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Julie Allemand
G · #20
19.2Game score
12
Pts
4
Reb
10
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
23.1Game score
29
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA16-17
9796
DAL9-25
LA16-17DAL9-25
LA
16-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 32 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +5 | |
| 35 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 34 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| 36 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -12 | |
| 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 97 | 39 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
DAL
9-25
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 17 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 33 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -12 | |
| 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -10 | |
| 19 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 30 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +16 | |
| Team | 96 | 28 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
51
23
Ast
32
Season series
LA wins series 4-0
Jun 7LA93@DAL79
LA93@DAL79Aug 15LA97@DAL96today
LA97@DAL96todayAug 21DAL80@LA81
DAL80@LA81Sep 7DAL77@LA91
DAL77@LA91Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 1.5
LAJ. Allemand
GGame leader · 36 min
12 PTS · 4 REB · 10 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 33 min
29 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LA beat DAL 97-96. J. Allemand led with 12 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST. DAL outscored the other side 28-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 93% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST
GS 76
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
GS 7
DALstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 13 REB · 16 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
39 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST
GS 35
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL2nd Quarter · 5:01 · 36-34
+22pp→ 50% WP
Rae Burrell · out of bounds bad pass turnover
DAL4th Quarter · 15.1 · 97-96
+21pp→ 29% WP
JJ Quinerly · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
LA4th Quarter · 1.5 · 97-96
+23pp→ 95% WP
Paige Bueckers · misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 32 | 21 | 27 | 17 | 97 |
| DAL | 27 | 23 | 18 | 28 | 96 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · DAL won 2
32
27
Q1
Hamby 14
Hines-Allen 7
21
23
Q2
Jackson 7
Bueckers 9
27
18
Q3
Allemand 10
Quinerly 23
17
28
Q4
Plum 11
Quinerly 12
LA
DAL
Shooting comparison
LA
DAL
44%
33-75
FG
51%
38-75
44%
11-25
3PT
33%
9-27
80%
20-25
FT
100%
11-11
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 97·DAL 96
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 97·DAL 96
−4pp
- Q4·1.5
Kelsey Plum defensive rebound
LA 97·DAL 96
−0.6pp
- Q4·1.5
Paige Bueckers misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
−23pp
- Q4·6.2
Kelsey Plum lost ball turnover (Maddy Siegrist steals)
·
LA 97·DAL 96
- Q4·6.2
Kelsey Plum vs. Maddy Siegrist (Paige Bueckers gains possession)
· ·
LA 97·DAL 96
- Q4·9.9
Kelsey Plum offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
−17pp
- Q4·12.3
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
+16pp
- Q4·12.3
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
+11pp
- Q4·12.3
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
+7pp
- Q4·12.3
Maddy Siegrist personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 97·DAL 96
−19pp
- Q4·15.1
JJ Quinerly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·DAL 96
+21pp
- Q4·35.2
Wings timeout
LA 97·DAL 93
- Q4·35.2
Dearica Hamby turnover
LA 97·DAL 93
- Q4·35.2
Dearica Hamby offensive charge
LA 97·DAL 93
+5pp
- Q4·54.0
Paige Bueckers makes driving layup
LA 97·DAL 93
+3pp
- Q4·1:03
Kelsey Plum makes 5-foot two point shot (Julie Allemand assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·DAL 91
−5pp
- Q4·1:19
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
LA 95·DAL 91
−2pp
- Q4·1:24
Maddy Siegrist misses 22-foot three point jumper
LA 95·DAL 91
−3pp
- Q4·1:33
Kelsey Plum personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 95·DAL 91
+13pp
- Q4·1:33
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
LA 95·DAL 91
+2pp
- Q4·1:35
Kelsey Plum misses layup
LA 95·DAL 91
+5pp
- Q4·1:54
Aziaha James makes 9-foot two point shot (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
LA 95·DAL 91
−5pp
- Q4·2:07
Rickea Jackson personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 95·DAL 89
+11pp
- Q4·2:16
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
LA 95·DAL 89
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:18
Kelsey Plum misses 12-foot two point shot
LA 95·DAL 89
+2pp
- Q4·2:26
Rickea Jackson vs. Maddy Siegrist (Julie Allemand gains possession)
· ·
LA 95·DAL 89
−2pp
- Q4·2:29
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 95·DAL 89
- Q4·2:29
Maddy Siegrist blocks Rickea Jackson 's 6-foot two point shot
·
LA 95·DAL 89
+2pp
- Q4·2:29
Rickea Jackson offensive rebound
LA 95·DAL 89
−2pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
33-75
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-75
44
FG %
51
11-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
20-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-11
23
Assists
32
14
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
DAL
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
46.6%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3