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FINAL+18LV
LV

LV

9-9

8668
CON

CON

2-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASun, Jul 6FinalSeriesLV wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 86–68. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

19.1Game score

19

Pts

3

Reb

0

Ast

CON · top performer

CON
Tina Charles

Tina Charles

C · #31

9.2Game score

11

Pts

4

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
86
68
LV9-9CON2-16
LV

LV

9-9

86
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
2411101201+8
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
241930241+19
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
20628002+19
J. LoydJ. Loyd★G · #24
32362203+12
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
211436101+19
K. BellK. BellF · #1
18820111+9
K. StokesK. StokesC · #41
18251011+2
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
231843102-1
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
21500002+3
Team8635219614
DNP: M. Gustafson
CON

CON

2-16

68
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
221230212-11
O. Nelson-OdodaO. Nelson-Ododa★C · #10
22971002-12
B. HartleyB. Hartley★G · #14
20702202-14
J. SheldonJ. Sheldon★G · #4
23852101-20
S. RiversS. Rivers★G · #22
311071113-14
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
13300000-5
T. CharlesT. CharlesC · #31
241142200-9
L. AllenL. AllenG · #15
20315102-4
L. LacanL. LacanG · #47
24501002-2
Team6827149214
DNP: M. Mabrey, J. Brown

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

54

FG %

38

21

Ast

14

Season series

LV wins series 4-0

May 20LVLV87@CONCON62
Jun 26CONCON59@LVLV85
Jul 6LVLV86@CONCON68today
Aug 11CONCON86@LVLV94

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLV ↔ CON
LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 24 min

19 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST

CONCON
T. Charles

T. Charles

C

Game leader · 24 min

11 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

LV beat CON 86-68. A. Wilson led with 19 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs LV

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
LVLVstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 23

CONCONstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 28

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

GS 15

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
LV1627271686
CON1216221868

Period scoring

LV won 3 · CON won 1

16
12

Q1

Wilson 8

Nelson-Ododa 4

27
16

Q2

Young 7

Charles 8

27
22

Q3

Wilson 8

Hartley 6

16
18

Q4

Evans 11

Morrow 6

LV
CON

Shooting comparison

LV
CON

54%

34-63

FG

38%

24-63

35%

9-26

3PT

28%

5-18

69%

9-13

FT

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    LV 86·CON 68

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    LV 86·CON 68

  3. Q4·23.2

    Aneesah Morrow makes two point shot (Lindsay Allen assists)

    ·

    LV 86·CON 68

  4. Q4·27.1

    Aaliyah Nye bad pass (Lindsay Allen steals)

    ·

    LV 86·CON 66

  5. Q4·52.2

    Aneesah Morrow bad pass (Kierstan Bell steals)

    ·

    LV 86·CON 66

  6. Q4·57.1

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    LV 86·CON 66

  7. Q4·58.1

    Aaliyah Nye misses 24-foot three point jumper

    LV 86·CON 66

  8. Q4·1:15

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    LV 86·CON 66

  9. Q4·1:16

    Aneesah Morrow misses 26-foot three point jumper

    LV 86·CON 66

  10. Q4·1:31

    Aaliyah Nye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kiah Stokes assists)

    ·

    LV 86·CON 66

  11. Q4·1:46

    Aneesah Morrow makes driving layup

    LV 83·CON 66

  12. Q4·1:59

    Dana Evans makes free throw 2 of 2

    LV 83·CON 64

  13. Q4·1:59

    Rayah Marshall enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa

    ·

    LV 82·CON 64

  14. Q4·1:59

    Aces offensive team rebound

    LV 82·CON 64

  15. Q4·1:59

    Dana Evans misses free throw 1 of 2

    LV 82·CON 64

  16. Q4·1:59

    Saniya Rivers shooting foul

    LV 82·CON 64

  17. Q4·2:13

    Lindsay Allen lost ball turnover (NaLyssa Smith steals)

    ·

    LV 82·CON 64

  18. Q4·2:25

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound

    LV 82·CON 64

  19. Q4·2:28

    Dana Evans misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

    LV 82·CON 64

  20. Q4·2:37

    NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound

    LV 82·CON 64

  21. Q4·2:39

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses 8-foot pullup jump shot

    LV 82·CON 64

  22. Q4·3:05

    Dana Evans makes 2-foot two point shot

    LV 82·CON 64

  23. Q4·3:24

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 2 of 2

    LV 80·CON 64

  24. Q4·3:24

    NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Jewell Loyd

    ·

    LV 80·CON 63

  25. Q4·3:24

    Sun offensive team rebound

    LV 80·CON 63

  26. Q4·3:24

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses free throw 1 of 2

    LV 80·CON 63

  27. Q4·3:24

    Kierstan Bell shooting foul

    LV 80·CON 63

  28. Q4·3:40

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound

    LV 80·CON 63

  29. Q4·3:41

    Jewell Loyd misses 25-foot three point jumper

    LV 80·CON 63

  30. Q4·3:49

    Leila Lacan personal foul

    LV 80·CON 63

Team stats

LV

Away

Stat

CON

Home

34-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-63

54

FG %

38

9-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-18

9-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

21

Assists

14

14

Turnovers

14

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · LV favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    1.0± 1.2low

Steals

  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low
  • Aaliyah EdwardsCON
    1.0± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

LV

LV

league avg

CON

CON

49.7%

FG%

◀

44.7

40.7%

34.9%

3PT %

◀

32.6

26.0%

91.0

PPG

◀

85.4

74.7

22.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

17.9

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop