Jul 6, 25sim 95
1786
18(H)68
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14CHI
WSH
13-16
6478
CHI
8-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hicago Sky held off Washington Mystics, 78–64.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
11.2Game score
13
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
CHI · top performer
Elizabeth Williams
C · #1
16.9Game score
18
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH13-16
6478
CHI8-21
WSH13-16CHI8-21
WSH
13-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -19 | |
| 26 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
| 32 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -15 | |
| 34 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 32 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 13 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 64 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 11 | ||
| DNP: A. Clark, G. Amoore | ||||||||
CHI
8-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 36 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 31 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 26 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +18 | |
| 24 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 19 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| Team | 78 | 33 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 18 | ||
| DNP: A. Reese, C. Vandersloot | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
54
16
Ast
22
Season series
WSH wins series 3-1
Jun 18WSH79@CHI72
WSH79@CHI72Jul 8CHI79@WSH81
CHI79@WSH81Jul 29CHI86@WSH103
CHI86@WSH103Aug 6WSH64@CHI78today
WSH64@CHI78todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 6:12
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 34 min
13 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
CHIE. Williams
CGame leader · 36 min
18 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
CHI beat WSH 78-64. E. Williams led with 18 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. CHI outscored the other side 25-10 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 13
CHIstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST
GS 2
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI1st Quarter · 6:12 · 2-12
+7pp→ 77% WP
Elizabeth Williams · makes 2-foot jumper (Ariel Atkins assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 10 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 64 |
| CHI | 25 | 10 | 26 | 17 | 78 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · CHI won 2
10
25
Q1
Sutton 4
Williams 10
18
10
Q2
Iriafen 4
Cardoso 6
18
26
Q3
Citron 5
Atkins 6
18
17
Q4
Citron 5
Atkins 7
WSH
CHI
Shooting comparison
WSH
CHI
42%
27-65
FG
54%
34-63
13%
2-15
3PT
27%
4-15
53%
8-15
FT
67%
6-9
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 64·CHI 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 64·CHI 78
- Q4·15.3
Ariel Atkins makes 1-foot two point shot
WSH 64·CHI 78
- Q4·33.0
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
WSH 64·CHI 76
- Q4·35.5
Lucy Olsen misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 64·CHI 76
- Q4·44.6
Mystics timeout
WSH 64·CHI 76
- Q4·44.6
Ariel Atkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Elizabeth Williams assists)
·
WSH 64·CHI 76
- Q4·1:02
Sky timeout
WSH 64·CHI 73
- Q4·1:02
Sky defensive team rebound
WSH 64·CHI 73
- Q4·1:03
Jade Melbourne misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 64·CHI 73
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:13
8 second turnover
WSH 64·CHI 73
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:17
Sky Full timeout
WSH 64·CHI 73
- Q4·1:21
Jade Melbourne makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
WSH 64·CHI 73
- Q4·1:26
Rachel Banham makes driving layup
WSH 62·CHI 73
- Q4·1:47
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Hailey Van Lith
·
WSH 62·CHI 71
- Q4·1:47
Ariel Atkins enters the game for Maddy Westbeld
·
WSH 62·CHI 71
- Q4·1:47
Emily Engstler personal foul
WSH 62·CHI 71
- Q4·1:50
Lucy Olsen makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 62·CHI 71
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:50
Rachel Banham shooting foul
WSH 61·CHI 71
−2pp
- Q4·1:50
Lucy Olsen makes driving layup (Sug Sutton assists)
·
WSH 61·CHI 71
- Q4·2:03
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:03
Hailey Van Lith steps out of bounds turnover
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:17
Rachel Banham enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
+1pp
- Q4·2:17
Sug Sutton enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:17
Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Sevgi Uzun
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:17
Maddy Westbeld enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:17
Sky Full timeout
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:17
Emily Engstler makes layup (Aaliyah Edwards assists)
·
WSH 59·CHI 71
- Q4·2:24
Sevgi Uzun bad pass (Sonia Citron steals)
·
WSH 57·CHI 71
- Q4·2:41
Sonia Citron makes 25-foot three point shot (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
WSH 57·CHI 71
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
27-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-63
42
FG %
54
2-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-15
8-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-9
16
Assists
22
11
Turnovers
18
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
CHI
45.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
28.0%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
83.4
PPG
85.4
82.8
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.3
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0