Sep 28, 25sim 96
1783
5(H)90
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8PHX
MIN
34-10
7684
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Minnesota Lynx, 84–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natisha Hiedeman
G · #2
15.7Game score
19
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
22.3Game score
21
Pts
9
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN34-10
7684
PHX27-17
MIN34-10PHX27-17
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 37 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | |
| 38 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 37 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 18 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| Team | 76 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: C. Taylor, A. Kosu, D. Carrington, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +12 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 12 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | |
| 30 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +12 | |
| 36 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 23 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| Team | 84 | 37 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
46
18
Ast
19
Playoff series
PHX leads series 2-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84today
MIN76@PHX84todaySep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 2:33
MINN. Hiedeman
GGame leader · 23 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 36 min
21 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
PHX beat MIN 84-76. A. Thomas led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST. PHX outscored the other side 21-9 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST
GS 30
Bench(3)
27 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 28
PHXstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
11 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 4:25 · 74-75
+14pp→ 47% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 3:05 · 76-78
+17pp→ 57% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 2:33 · 76-78
+31pp→ 39% WP
Satou Sabally · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 22 | 22 | 23 | 9 | 76 |
| PHX | 19 | 29 | 15 | 21 | 84 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · PHX won 2
22
19
Q1
Williams 7
Makani 5
22
29
Q2
Collier 8
Copper 13
23
15
Q3
Hiedeman 8
Thomas 6
9
21
Q4
Kliundikova 6
Sabally 15
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
42%
30-71
FG
46%
30-65
25%
6-24
3PT
33%
6-18
91%
10-11
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 381 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·14.2
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·14.2
Courtney Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·16.4
Maria Kliundikova offensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·19.7
Kayla McBride misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 76·PHX 83
+0.5pp
- Q4·21.8
Satou Sabally makes technical free throw
MIN 76·PHX 84
- Q4·21.8
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 83
−0.5pp
- Q4·21.8
Satou Sabally makes technical free throwBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 83
+6pp
- Q4·21.8
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 76·PHX 82
- Q4·21.8
Eric Thibault technical foul
MIN 76·PHX 82
−3pp
- Q4·21.8
Cheryl Reeve ejected
MIN 76·PHX 82
−3pp
- Q4·21.8
Cheryl Reeve technical foul
MIN 76·PHX 82
+3pp
- Q4·21.8
Alyssa Thomas makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 82
+30pp
- Q4·23.8
Napheesa Collier lost ball turnover (Alyssa Thomas steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 76·PHX 80
+9pp
- Q4·28.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 76·PHX 80
- Q4·28.0
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 80
−1pp
- Q4·29.9
Sami Whitcomb misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
−6pp
- Q4·42.1
Satou Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
+7pp
- Q4·46.7
DeWanna Bonner misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
−6pp
- Q4·57.7
Alyssa Thomas offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
+7pp
- Q4·1:00
Alyssa Thomas misses 17-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
−6pp
- Q4·1:19
Courtney Williams vs. Alyssa Thomas (DeWanna Bonner gains possession)
· ·
MIN 76·PHX 80
- Q4·1:19
Mercury defensive team rebound
MIN 76·PHX 80
+2pp
- Q4·1:22
Natisha Hiedeman misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
+7pp
- Q4·1:32
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Natisha Hiedeman steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 76·PHX 80
−8pp
- Q4·1:39
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 80
+2pp
- Q4·1:41
Kayla McBride misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
+7pp
- Q4·2:01
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 80
−6pp
- Q4·2:01
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 79
+7pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-65
42
FG %
46
6-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-18
10-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
18
Assists
19
11
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9