Sep 27, 25sim 96
876
11(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7IND
LV
30-14
8390
IND
24-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Las Vegas Aces, 90–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
25.3Game score
31
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
24.2Game score
24
Pts
14
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
8390
IND24-20
LV30-14IND24-20
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 36 | 31 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -11 | |
| 38 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | |
| 38 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 32 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 83 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye | ||||||||
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 34 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +12 | |
| 25 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 39 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 38 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 90 | 34 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, D. Dantas, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark, B. Hall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
45
22
Ast
14
Playoff series
Series tied 2-2
Sep 21IND89@LV73
IND89@LV73Sep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72
LV84@IND72Sep 28LV83@IND90today
LV83@IND90todayOct 1IND98@LV107
IND98@LV107Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:54
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 34 min
24 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
IND beat LV 90-83. A. Boston led with 24 PTS, 14 REB, 5 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
GS 3
INDstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
9 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 5:26 · 67-71
+11pp→ 39% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · personal foul
LV4th Quarter · 3:17 · 73-77
+12pp→ 31% WP
Lexie Hull · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 2:59 · 74-77
+14pp→ 29% WP
Lexie Hull · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 21 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 83 |
| IND | 23 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 90 |
Period scoring
LV won 1 · IND won 3
21
23
Q1
Wilson 10
Mitchell 9
17
23
Q2
Young 5
Peddy 7
24
21
Q3
Wilson 10
Boston 13
21
23
Q4
Wilson 9
Sims 9
LV
IND
Shooting comparison
LV
IND
49%
33-67
FG
45%
30-67
39%
9-23
3PT
27%
4-15
73%
8-11
FT
76%
26-34
Play-by-play · 409 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 83·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 83·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 83·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
Aliyah Boston blocks Chelsea Gray 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LV 83·IND 90
- Q4·6.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 83·IND 90
- Q4·6.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 83·IND 89
- Q4·6.1
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 83·IND 88
+0.5pp
- Q4·9.6
Chelsea Gray makes 26-foot three pointer
LV 83·IND 88
- Q4·18.4
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 80·IND 88
- Q4·18.4
Fever offensive team rebound
LV 80·IND 87
- Q4·18.4
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 80·IND 87
- Q4·18.4
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 80·IND 87
- Q4·20.1
Chelsea Gray makes 25-foot three pointer
LV 80·IND 87
- Q4·27.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 77·IND 87
- Q4·27.6
Brianna Turner enters the game for Shey Peddy
·
LV 77·IND 86
- Q4·27.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·IND 86
- Q4·27.6
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
LV 77·IND 85
- Q4·30.1
Shey Peddy enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 77·IND 85
- Q4·30.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes technical free throw
LV 77·IND 85
- Q4·30.1
excess timeout turnover
LV 77·IND 84
- Q4·30.1
excess timeout technical foul
LV 77·IND 84
+2pp
- Q4·36.6
Aces timeout
LV 77·IND 84
- Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 77·IND 84
−1pp
- Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·IND 83
- Q4·36.6
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 77·IND 82
+3pp
- Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
LV 77·IND 82
+1pp
- Q4·39.8
Jewell Loyd misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 77·IND 82
+4pp
- Q4·44.5
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LV 77·IND 82
- Q4·44.5
Aces Full timeout
LV 77·IND 82
- Q4·44.5
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 77·IND 82
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
IND
Home
33-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-67
49
FG %
45
9-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-15
8-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-34
22
Assists
14
15
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
IND
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
91.0
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4