WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7IND

30-14

8390

IND

24-20

WNBASun, Sep 28FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:54

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SmithF · #3	22	8	4-5	—	—	+1	2	0
K. BellF · #1	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	0	0
A. WilsonC · #22	36	31	14-24	—	3-6	-11	9	3
C. GrayG · #12	38	12	4-13	3-7	1-1	-8	2	9
J. YoungG · #0	38	18	6-10	2-4	4-4	-5	5	9
Bench
K. StokesC · #41	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
GustafsonC · #17	15	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	1	0
J. LoydG · #24	32	6	2-8	2-7	—	-10	3	0
D. EvansG · #11	13	3	1-4	1-3	—	+1	0	1
Team		83	33-67	9-23	8-11		22	22
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #6	26	7	2-6	0-1	3-4	-1	3	1
A. BostonC · #7	34	24	7-15	—	10-13	+12	14	5
O. SimsG · #1	25	18	6-9	1-1	5-6	+17	1	2
K. MitchellG · #0	39	25	9-20	2-5	5-6	+4	3	4
L. HullG · #10	38	7	2-12	1-7	2-4	+7	7	1
Bench
B. TurnerF · #11	9	2	1-1	—	—	-2	1	0
M. TimpsonF · #21	11	0	—	—	—	+3	2	0
S. PeddyG · #5	16	7	3-4	0-1	1-1	-5	3	1
A. PowersG · #23	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		90	30-67	4-15	26-34		34	14
DNP: C. Bibby, D. Dantas, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark, B. Hall

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

33-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-67

FG %

9-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-15

8-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-34

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Sep 21

IND89@

LV73

Sep 24

IND68@

LV90

Sep 26

LV84@

IND72

Sep 28

LV83@

IND90today

Oct 1

IND98@

LV107

How it ended

IND beat LV 90-83. A. Boston led with 24 PTS, 14 REB, 5 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

GS 3

INDstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

9 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 5:26 · 67-71

+11pp→ 39% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · personal foul

LV4th Quarter · 3:17 · 73-77

+12pp→ 31% WP

Lexie Hull · shooting foul

LV4th Quarter · 2:59 · 74-77

+14pp→ 29% WP

Lexie Hull · misses 27-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	21	17	24	21	83
IND	23	23	21	23	90

Period scoring

LV won 1 · IND won 3

Wilson 10

Mitchell 9

Young 5

Peddy 7

Wilson 10

Boston 13

Wilson 9

Sims 9

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

49%

33-67

45%

30-67

39%

9-23

3PT

27%

4-15

73%

8-11

76%

26-34

Play-by-play · 409 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 83·IND 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 83·IND 90
Q4·0.0
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 83·IND 90
Q4·0.0
Aliyah Boston blocks Chelsea Gray 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LV 83·IND 90
Q4·6.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 83·IND 90
Q4·6.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 83·IND 89
Q4·6.1
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 83·IND 88
+0.5pp
Q4·9.6
Chelsea Gray makes 26-foot three pointer
LV 83·IND 88
Q4·18.4
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 80·IND 88
Q4·18.4
Fever offensive team rebound
LV 80·IND 87
Q4·18.4
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 80·IND 87
Q4·18.4
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 80·IND 87
Q4·20.1
Chelsea Gray makes 25-foot three pointer
LV 80·IND 87
Q4·27.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 77·IND 87
Q4·27.6
Brianna Turner enters the game for Shey Peddy
·
LV 77·IND 86
Q4·27.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·IND 86
Q4·27.6
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
LV 77·IND 85
Q4·30.1
Shey Peddy enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 77·IND 85
Q4·30.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes technical free throw
LV 77·IND 85
Q4·30.1
excess timeout turnover
LV 77·IND 84
Q4·30.1
excess timeout technical foul
LV 77·IND 84
+2pp
Q4·36.6
Aces timeout
LV 77·IND 84
Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 77·IND 84
−1pp
Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·IND 83
Q4·36.6
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 77·IND 82
+3pp
Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
LV 77·IND 82
+1pp
Q4·39.8
Jewell Loyd misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 77·IND 82
+4pp
Q4·44.5
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LV 77·IND 82
Q4·44.5
Aces Full timeout
LV 77·IND 82
Q4·44.5
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 77·IND 82

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Las Vegas Aces, 90–83.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV33/67 · 49%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim13/18

72%

In the paint6/10

60%

Mid-range5/16

31%

Top-of-arc 37/18

39%

Left corner 31/2

50%

Right corner 31/3

33%

IND30/67 · 45%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/25

60%

In the paint7/15

47%

Mid-range4/11

36%

Top-of-arc 34/14

29%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/1

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

56.0%

47.8%

TOV%

ball control

17.3%

14.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

10.3%

29.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

11.9%

38.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV33/67 · 49%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim13/18

72%

In the paint6/10

60%

Mid-range5/16

31%

Top-of-arc 37/18

39%

Left corner 31/2

50%

Right corner 31/3

33%

IND30/67 · 45%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim15/25

60%

In the paint7/15

47%

Mid-range4/11

36%

Top-of-arc 34/14

29%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/1

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.3%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
49.5%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.3%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.8%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high
Jewell LoydLV
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Lynx81Mercury86Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop