Jul 9, 25sim 95
1483
18(H)93
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16CON
NY
17-10
6278
CON
5-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off New York Liberty, 78–62.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
19.8Game score
23
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
CON · top performer
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
C · #10
15.0Game score
16
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY17-10
6278
CON5-21
NY17-10CON5-21
NY
17-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -14 | |
| 33 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -8 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 31 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
| 22 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 62 | 29 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 21 | ||
| DNP: B. Stewart, N. Sabally, E. Meesseman, K. Burke | ||||||||
CON
5-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 32 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 20 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +13 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 26 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +30 | |
| 27 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +27 | |
| 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| Team | 78 | 42 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 17 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, R. Marshall, L. Allen, M. Toure | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
41
18
Ast
21
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
Jun 1CON52@NY100
CON52@NY100Aug 1NY62@CON78today
NY62@CON78todayAug 3NY87@CON78
NY87@CON78Aug 25CON79@NY81
CON79@NY81Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:36
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 35 min
23 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
CONO. Nelson-Ododa
CGame leader · 26 min
16 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
CON beat NY 78-62. O. Nelson-Ododa led with 16 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. CON outscored the other side 29-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 29
Bench(3)
16 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
CONstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 32
Bench(3)
32 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 31
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 43.2 · 37-42
+7pp→ 47% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · makes two point shot (Marina Mabrey assists)
CON3rd Quarter · 8:44 · 42-46
+7pp→ 48% WP
Jonquel Jones · misses free throw 2 of 2
CON3rd Quarter · 3:36 · 46-56
+9pp→ 79% WP
Marina Mabrey · makes 25-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 20 | 17 | 18 | 7 | 62 |
| CON | 15 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 78 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · CON won 3
20
15
Q1
Ionescu 7
Charles 6
17
29
Q2
Ionescu 5
Lacan 9
18
20
Q3
Ionescu 9
Mabrey 7
7
14
Q4
Jones 3
Nelson-Ododa 5
NY
CON
Shooting comparison
NY
CON
34%
20-59
FG
41%
28-69
22%
6-27
3PT
25%
5-20
94%
16-17
FT
71%
17-24
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·21.1
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·23.5
Isabelle Harrison misses driving floating jump shot
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·38.3
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·39.4
Marina Mabrey misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·55.8
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·58.5
Olivia Nelson-Ododa blocks Marine Johannes 's 27-foot three point jumper
·
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:03
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:03
Marine Johannes enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:03
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:03
Liberty Full timeout
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:03
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes 19-foot jumper (Bria Hartley assists)
·
NY 62·CON 78
- Q4·1:18
Jonquel Jones bad pass (Jacy Sheldon steals)
·
NY 62·CON 76
- Q4·1:28
Marina Mabrey makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
NY 62·CON 76
- Q4·1:47
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 74
- Q4·1:49
Leonie Fiebich misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 62·CON 74
- Q4·2:08
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Stephanie Talbot
·
NY 62·CON 74
- Q4·2:08
Liberty Full timeout
NY 62·CON 74
- Q4·2:09
Marina Mabrey makes 2-foot layup (Tina Charles assists)
·
NY 62·CON 74
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:32
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 72
- Q4·2:35
Sabrina Ionescu misses 28-foot three point shot
NY 62·CON 72
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:40
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 72
- Q4·2:41
Leonie Fiebich blocks Jacy Sheldon 's 4-foot driving layup
·
NY 62·CON 72
- Q4·3:01
Bria Hartley defensive rebound
NY 62·CON 72
- Q4·3:03
Natasha Cloud misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 62·CON 72
+0.9pp
- Q4·3:12
Bria Hartley bad pass (Leonie Fiebich steals)
·
NY 62·CON 72
−0.8pp
- Q4·3:23
Stephanie Talbot out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 62·CON 72
+1pp
- Q4·3:38
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 62·CON 72
−0.9pp
- Q4·3:38
Marina Mabrey enters the game for Leila Lacan
·
NY 62·CON 71
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
CON
Home
20-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-69
34
FG %
41
6-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-20
16-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-24
18
Assists
21
21
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Jonquel JonesNY12.6± 5.0low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
CON
45.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
86.6
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
21.7
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8