Aug 1, 25sim 95
962
18(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10CON
SEA
12-8
8393
CON
3-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off Seattle Storm, 93–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
16.5Game score
23
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
21.0Game score
29
Pts
11
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA12-8
8393
CON3-16
SEA12-8CON3-16
SEA
12-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 36 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 35 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 34 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| Team | 83 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
CON
3-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 29 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 25 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +4 | |
| 24 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 34 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 20 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 19 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
| Team | 93 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey, J. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
49
22
Ast
21
Season series
SEA wins series 3-1
Jun 28CON81@SEA97
CON81@SEA97Jul 9SEA83@CON93today
SEA83@CON93todayJul 12CON65@SEA79
CON65@SEA79Jul 28SEA101@CON85
SEA101@CON85Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 2:40
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 35 min
29 PTS · 11 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
CON beat SEA 93-83. T. Charles paced them with 29 PTS, 11 REB, 0 AST. CON outscored the other side 27-9 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 95% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 27 REB · 21 AST
GS 63
Bench(3)
4 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
CONstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 4:32 · 79-79
+13pp→ 57% WP
Ezi Magbegor · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 4:07 · 79-80
+14pp→ 67% WP
Ezi Magbegor · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 2:40 · 81-85
+17pp→ 74% WP
Jacy Sheldon · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leila Lacan assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 27 | 22 | 25 | 9 | 83 |
| CON | 18 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 93 |
Period scoring
SEA won 1 · CON won 2
27
18
Q1
Diggins 8
Hartley 8
22
23
Q2
Ogwumike 8
Hartley 7
25
25
Q3
Diggins 13
Rivers 11
9
27
Q4
Williams 2
Charles 11
SEA
CON
Shooting comparison
SEA
CON
45%
31-69
FG
49%
32-65
24%
6-25
3PT
44%
8-18
79%
15-19
FT
95%
21-22
Play-by-play · 361 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·6.0
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·9.0
Saniya Rivers misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·32.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·34.0
Gabby Williams misses running pullup jump shot
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·36.1
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·38.1
Tina Charles misses two point shot
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·54.0
Erica Wheeler makes 2-foot two point shot (Ezi Magbegor assists)
·
SEA 83·CON 93
- Q4·1:03
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 81·CON 93
- Q4·1:03
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 81·CON 92
- Q4·1:03
Erica Wheeler personal take foul
SEA 81·CON 91
- Q4·1:04
Jacy Sheldon defensive rebound
SEA 81·CON 91
- Q4·1:09
Saniya Rivers blocks Skylar Diggins 's 26-foot three point jumper
·
SEA 81·CON 91
- Q4·1:15
Storm timeout
SEA 81·CON 91
- Q4·1:15
Tina Charles makes 2-foot layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
SEA 81·CON 91
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:18
Gabby Williams lost ball turnover (Saniya Rivers steals)
·
SEA 81·CON 89
+1pp
- Q4·1:23
Tina Charles makes two point shot
SEA 81·CON 89
+2pp
- Q4·1:23
Tina Charles offensive rebound
SEA 81·CON 87
+3pp
- Q4·1:24
Saniya Rivers misses 6-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 81·CON 87
−5pp
- Q4·1:42
Skylar Diggins personal foul
SEA 81·CON 87
+3pp
- Q4·1:45
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
SEA 81·CON 87
+1pp
- Q4·1:47
Nneka Ogwumike misses driving layup
SEA 81·CON 87
+4pp
- Q4·1:54
Storm Full timeout
SEA 81·CON 87
- Q4·1:54
Leila Lacan makes 1-foot two point shot (Jacy Sheldon assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 81·CON 87
+6pp
- Q4·2:05
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
SEA 81·CON 85
+2pp
- Q4·2:08
Skylar Diggins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 81·CON 85
+6pp
- Q4·2:17
Ezi Magbegor offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 81·CON 85
−5pp
- Q4·2:20
Nneka Ogwumike misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 81·CON 85
+7pp
- Q4·2:40
Jacy Sheldon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leila Lacan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 81·CON 85
+17pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
CON
Home
31-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-65
45
FG %
49
6-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-18
15-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-22
22
Assists
21
9
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
CON
41.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
79.5
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶17.9
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8