Aug 15, 25sim 96
12968990
19(H)59
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6IND
IND
19-16
9993
CON
6-27
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 99–93 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
30.1Game score
38
Pts
1
Reb
6
Ast
CON · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
16.6Game score
27
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
IND19-16
9993
CON6-27
IND19-16CON6-27
IND
19-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 36 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +12 | |
| 42 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +11 | |
| 40 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +10 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 37 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| Team | 99 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: S. Colson, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
CON
6-27
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 30 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | |
| 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +7 | |
| 37 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 38 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 36 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 93 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, R. Marshall, L. Allen, M. Toure | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
49
23
Ast
25
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
May 30CON85@IND83
CON85@IND83Jun 17CON71@IND88
CON71@IND88Jul 16IND85@CON77
IND85@CON77Aug 17IND99@CON93today
IND99@CON93todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 24pp · 1st Quarter · 6:18
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 40 min30+ point game
38 PTS · 1 REB · 6 AST
CONM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 37 min
27 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
IND beat CON 99-93. K. Mitchell led the way with 38 points and 6 assists. CON outscored the other side 24-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST
GS 69
Bench(6)
10 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 6
CONstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST
GS 52
Bench(3)
24 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON1st Quarter · 6:18 · 4-11
+24pp→ 50% WP
Sophie Cunningham · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND4th Quarter · 44.7 · 81-82
+19pp→ 53% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 53.3 · 79-82
+19pp→ 74% WP
shot clock turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 11 | 18 | 23 | 32 | 15 | 99 |
| CON | 24 | 24 | 15 | 21 | 9 | 93 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · CON won 2
11
24
Q1
Sims 6
Cunningham 10
18
24
Q2
Howard 8
Boston 11
23
15
Q3
Mitchell 14
Mabrey 4
32
21
Q4
Mitchell 10
Boston 9
15
9
OT
Mitchell 10
Mabrey 4
IND
CON
Shooting comparison
IND
CON
46%
36-78
FG
49%
36-73
32%
7-22
3PT
41%
7-17
80%
20-25
FT
70%
14-20
Play-by-play · 453 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·0.3
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·2.2
Marina Mabrey misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Kyra Lambert enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Chloe Bibby enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Sun Full timeout
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 99·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 98·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 98·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·CON 93
- OT·4.6
Saniya Rivers personal take foul
IND 97·CON 93
- OT·10.8
Marina Mabrey personal take foul
IND 97·CON 93
−4pp
- OT·21.2
Tina Charles makes 27-foot three point jumper (Leila Lacan assists)
·
IND 97·CON 93
+2pp
- OT·44.9
Lexie Hull makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brianna Turner assists)
·
IND 97·CON 90
−4pp
- OT·59.7
Fever Full timeout
IND 94·CON 90
−0.5pp
- OT·1:07
Marina Mabrey makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
IND 94·CON 90
+0.5pp
- OT·1:13
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
IND 94·CON 88
+0.6pp
- OT·1:16
Kelsey Mitchell misses 4-foot hook shot
IND 94·CON 88
+1pp
- OT·1:36
Odyssey Sims defensive rebound
IND 94·CON 88
−0.8pp
- OT·1:38
Tina Charles misses 5-foot hook shot
IND 94·CON 88
−3pp
- OT·1:55
Kelsey Mitchell makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
IND 94·CON 88
−4pp
- OT·2:18
Marina Mabrey makes 7-foot pullup jump shot
IND 92·CON 88
+2pp
- OT·2:30
Tina Charles offensive rebound
IND 92·CON 86
+3pp
- OT·2:33
Tina Charles misses 6-foot two point shot
IND 92·CON 86
−3pp
- OT·2:40
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 92·CON 86
- OT·2:54
Sun Full timeout
IND 92·CON 86
- OT·2:55
Kelsey Mitchell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Odyssey Sims assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 92·CON 86
−11pp
- OT·3:17
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 89·CON 86
−2pp
- OT·3:20
Tina Charles misses 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 89·CON 86
−7pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
CON
Home
36-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-73
46
FG %
49
7-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-17
20-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-20
23
Assists
25
16
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
CON
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8