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FINAL+16SEA
SEA

SEA

16-11

10185
CON

CON

4-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAMon, Jul 28FinalSeriesSEA wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 101–85.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Nneka Ogwumike

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #3

23.1Game score

26

Pts

3

Reb

3

Ast

CON · top performer

CON
Olivia Nelson-Ododa

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

C · #10

13.6Game score

10

Pts

6

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
101
85
SEA16-11CON4-21
SEA

SEA

16-11

101
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. OgwumikeN. Ogwumike★F · #3
192633000+17
G. WilliamsG. Williams★F · #5
241622301+27
E. MagbegorE. Magbegor★F · #13
171053140+20
S. DigginsS. Diggins★G · #4
23111211021+23
E. WheelerE. Wheeler★G · #17
21835114+15
A. ClarkA. ClarkF · #32
19423101-5
D. MalongaD. MalongaC · #14
2512601120
T. MitchellT. MitchellG · #25
15301002+14
L. BrownL. BrownG · #8
19332002-8
Z. CookeZ. CookeG · #7
12800002-11
Team10137307815
DNP: K. Samuelson
CON

CON

4-21

85
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
17971101-15
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
231142000-26
B. HartleyB. Hartley★G · #14
301714001+1
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
17822004-19
S. RiversS. Rivers★G · #22
13501002-16
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
11011000-1
O. Nelson-OdodaO. Nelson-OdodaC · #10
251062320-2
J. SheldonJ. SheldonG · #4
261132001-1
L. LacanL. LacanG · #47
22924202-6
Team8526208213

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

61

FG %

40

30

Ast

20

Season series

SEA wins series 3-1

Jun 28CONCON81@SEASEA97
Jul 9SEASEA83@CONCON93
Jul 12CONCON65@SEASEA79
Jul 28SEASEA101@CONCON85today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 5:46

SEASEA
N. Ogwumike

N. Ogwumike

F

Game leader · 19 min

26 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST

CONCON
O. Nelson-Ododa

O. Nelson-Ododa

C

Game leader · 25 min

10 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

SEA beat CON 101-85. N. Ogwumike paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. SEA outscored the other side 30-12 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs SEA

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
SEASEAstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST

GS 76

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 14

CONCONstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 29

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
SEA27303014101
CON2125122785

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · CON won 1

27
21

Q1

Magbegor 8

Charles 4

30
25

Q2

Ogwumike 10

Hartley 10

30
12

Q3

Ogwumike 11

Nelson-Ododa 4

14
27

Q4

Cooke 5

Lacan 9

SEA
CON

Shooting comparison

SEA
CON

61%

42-69

FG

40%

27-67

45%

9-20

3PT

47%

8-17

80%

8-10

FT

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 378 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    SEA 101·CON 85

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    SEA 101·CON 85

  3. Q4·9.0

    Zia Cooke makes driving layup

    SEA 101·CON 85

  4. Q4·27.1

    Storm timeout

    SEA 99·CON 85

  5. Q4·27.1

    Bria Hartley makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 99·CON 85

  6. Q4·27.1

    Bria Hartley makes free throw 1 of 2

    SEA 99·CON 84

  7. Q4·27.1

    Alysha Clark shooting foul

    SEA 99·CON 83

  8. Q4·31.1

    Leila Lacan defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 83

  9. Q4·33.1

    Mackenzie Holmes misses 14-foot jumper

    SEA 99·CON 83

  10. Q4·52.0

    Lexie Brown defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 83

  11. Q4·54.1

    Bria Hartley misses running pullup jump shot

    SEA 99·CON 83

  12. Q4·59.0

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 83

  13. Q4·1:01

    Zia Cooke misses 24-foot three point jumper

    SEA 99·CON 83

  14. Q4·1:21

    Leila Lacan personal foul

    SEA 99·CON 83

  15. Q4·1:21

    Haley Peters enters the game for Rayah Marshall

    ·

    SEA 99·CON 83

  16. Q4·1:23

    Alysha Clark defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 83

  17. Q4·1:24

    Rayah Marshall misses two point shot

    SEA 99·CON 83

  18. Q4·1:47

    Lexie Brown turnover

    SEA 99·CON 83

  19. Q4·1:47

    Lexie Brown offensive foul

    SEA 99·CON 83

  20. Q4·2:00

    Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 83

  21. Q4·2:02

    Jacy Sheldon misses driving layup

    SEA 99·CON 83

  22. Q4·2:07

    Zia Cooke bad pass (Olivia Nelson-Ododa steals)

    ·

    SEA 99·CON 83

  23. Q4·2:19

    Jacy Sheldon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivia Nelson-Ododa assists)

    ·

    SEA 99·CON 83

  24. Q4·2:32

    8 second turnover

    SEA 99·CON 80

  25. Q4·2:41

    Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 99·CON 80

  26. Q4·2:41

    Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2

    SEA 99·CON 79

  27. Q4·2:41

    Storm Full timeout

    SEA 99·CON 78

  28. Q4·2:41

    Alysha Clark personal foul

    SEA 99·CON 78

  29. Q4·2:53

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound

    SEA 99·CON 78

  30. Q4·2:56

    Dominique Malonga misses 15-foot jumper

    SEA 99·CON 78

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CON

Home

42-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-67

61

FG %

40

9-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-17

8-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

30

Assists

20

15

Turnovers

13

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low
  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    13.6± 9.4low
  • Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
    12.8± 6.6low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    7.6± 3.0low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    5.2± 1.1low

Assists

  • Jade MelbourneSEA
    3.9± 2.1low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Natisha HiedemanSEA
    3.7± 2.2low

Blocks

  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    1.4± 1.5low
  • Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
    1.3± 1.8low
  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low

Steals

  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Jade MelbourneSEA
    1.2± 1.2low
  • Aaliyah EdwardsCON
    1.0± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

SEA

SEA

league avg

CON

CON

41.6%

FG%

◀

44.7

40.7%

34.1%

3PT %

◀

32.6

26.0%

79.5

PPG

◀

85.4

74.7

17.0

Assists / G

18.0

▶

17.9

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop