Jul 31, 25sim 92
993
8(H)100
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13MIN
PHX
15-7
6679
MIN
20-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Phoenix Mercury, 79–66.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kalani Brown
C · #21
14.6Game score
11
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
MIN · top performer
Kayla McBride
G · #21
15.9Game score
18
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX15-7
6679
MIN20-4
PHX15-7MIN20-4
PHX
15-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 32 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -15 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -14 | |
| 23 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 23 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 19 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8 | |
| 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 27 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 66 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally, K. Copper, L. Held, M. Akoa Makani | ||||||||
MIN
20-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 26 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +16 | |
| 32 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 30 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| 17 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 79 | 44 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
43
21
Ast
22
Playoff series
PHX wins series 3-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:38
PHXK. Brown
CGame leader · 19 min
11 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST
MINK. McBride
GGame leader · 32 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
MIN beat PHX 79-66. K. McBride led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 21-10 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 24
Bench(3)
25 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST
GS 22
MINstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 50
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN3rd Quarter · 9:38 · 33-40
+7pp→ 83% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 10 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 66 |
| MIN | 21 | 16 | 27 | 15 | 79 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · MIN won 2
10
21
Q1
Whitcomb 6
Shepard 6
23
16
Q2
Brown 5
Williams 7
16
27
Q3
Williams 6
Smith 9
17
15
Q4
Brown 6
Kliundikova 5
PHX
MIN
Shooting comparison
PHX
MIN
36%
25-70
FG
43%
29-68
27%
7-26
3PT
43%
10-23
60%
9-15
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 402 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·11.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu lost ball turnover (Natasha Mack steals)
·
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·17.1
Kathryn Westbeld lost ball turnover (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu steals)
·
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·23.0
Kiana Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·26.1
Diamond Miller misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·39.1
Lynx defensive team rebound
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·42.0
Kiana Williams misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·48.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes driving layup
PHX 66·MIN 79
- Q4·1:04
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:08
Kathryn Westbeld misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:21
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:42
Kalani Brown lost ball turnover (Diamond Miller steals)
·
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:43
Kalani Brown offensive rebound
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:47
Kiana Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
·
PHX 66·MIN 77
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:47
Kiana Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
PHX 66·MIN 77
- Q4·1:47
Maria Kliundikova shooting foul
PHX 65·MIN 77
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:54
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
PHX 65·MIN 77
- Q4·1:54
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
· ·
PHX 65·MIN 77
- Q4·1:54
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
PHX 65·MIN 77
- Q4·1:54
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 65·MIN 77
- Q4·1:54
Maria Kliundikova makes layup (Kayla McBride assists)
·
PHX 65·MIN 77
- Q4·2:10
Kathryn Westbeld makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kiana Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 65·MIN 75
- Q4·2:30
Maria Kliundikova lost ball turnover (Kalani Brown steals)
·
PHX 62·MIN 75
- Q4·2:35
Kalani Brown enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
PHX 62·MIN 75
- Q4·2:35
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
PHX 62·MIN 75
- Q4·2:35
Diamond Miller enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
PHX 62·MIN 75
- Q4·2:35
Lynx Full timeout
PHX 62·MIN 75
- Q4·2:38
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
PHX 62·MIN 75
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
25-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-68
36
FG %
43
7-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-23
9-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
21
Assists
22
12
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 10 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
MIN
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4