Sep 4, 25sim 92
1175
16(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10DAL
NY
17-8
8292
DAL
8-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off New York Liberty, 92–82.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Stephanie Talbot
F · #6
13.2Game score
10
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
21.6Game score
20
Pts
1
Reb
14
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY17-8
8292
DAL8-19
NY17-8DAL8-19
NY
17-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 30 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 33 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 31 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | |
| 24 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | |
| 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 19 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 82 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 12 | ||
DAL
8-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 32 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 17 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 17 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 92 | 39 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: T. McCowan | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
46
24
Ast
27
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
Jul 29NY82@DAL92today
NY82@DAL92todayAug 5DAL76@NY85
DAL76@NY85Aug 8NY88@DAL77
NY88@DAL77Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 6:38
NYS. Talbot
FGame leader · 24 min
10 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 32 min
20 PTS · 1 REB · 14 AST
How it ended
DAL beat NY 92-82. A. Ogunbowale led with 20 PTS, 1 REB, 14 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST
GS 43
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST
GS 25
DALstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 16 REB · 22 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
28 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL1st Quarter · 6:38 · 2-14
+7pp→ 65% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Haley Jones assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 19 | 17 | 26 | 20 | 82 |
| DAL | 31 | 32 | 22 | 7 | 92 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · DAL won 2
19
31
Q1
Johannes 5
Ogunbowale 11
17
32
Q2
Gardner 5
Geiselsoder 8
26
22
Q3
Ionescu 9
Bueckers 7
20
7
Q4
Ionescu 7
James 3
NY
DAL
Shooting comparison
NY
DAL
44%
28-64
FG
46%
36-78
27%
7-26
3PT
28%
7-25
79%
19-24
FT
93%
13-14
Play-by-play · 390 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·21.1
shot clock turnover
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·44.0
DiJonai Carrington defensive rebound
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·46.1
Jonquel Jones misses 17-foot jumper
·
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·54.0
Liberty timeout
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·54.0
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 82·DAL 92
- Q4·54.0
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 82·DAL 91
- Q4·54.0
Natasha Cloud personal take foul
NY 82·DAL 90
+0.6pp
- Q4·54.0
DiJonai Carrington defensive rebound
NY 82·DAL 90
- Q4·55.0
Jonquel Jones misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
·
NY 82·DAL 90
+1pp
- Q4·1:06
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 82·DAL 90
−1pp
- Q4·1:06
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 82·DAL 89
+6pp
- Q4·1:06
(01:06) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Liberty] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 82·DAL 88
−6pp
- Q4·1:06
Liberty Full timeout
NY 82·DAL 88
- Q4·1:06
Natasha Cloud shooting foul
NY 82·DAL 88
+3pp
- Q4·1:14
DiJonai Carrington enters the game for Grace Berger
·
NY 82·DAL 88
- Q4·1:14
Wings Full timeout
NY 82·DAL 88
- Q4·1:16
Paige Bueckers offensive rebound
NY 82·DAL 88
+3pp
- Q4·1:19
Haley Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
NY 82·DAL 88
+1pp
- Q4·1:22
Sabrina Ionescu kicked ball violation
NY 82·DAL 88
−3pp
- Q4·1:44
Jonquel Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephanie Talbot assists)
· ·
NY 82·DAL 88
−4pp
- Q4·1:46
Stephanie Talbot offensive rebound
NY 79·DAL 88
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:49
Sabrina Ionescu misses 27-foot three point jumper
NY 79·DAL 88
+5pp
- Q4·1:57
Paige Bueckers personal foul
NY 79·DAL 88
−4pp
- Q4·1:58
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
NY 79·DAL 88
- Q4·2:01
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 29-foot three point jumper
NY 79·DAL 88
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:06
Grace Berger enters the game for JJ Quinerly
·
NY 79·DAL 88
- Q4·2:06
Wings offensive team rebound
NY 79·DAL 88
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:07
Stephanie Talbot blocks JJ Quinerly 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
NY 79·DAL 88
−0.5pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
28-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-78
44
FG %
46
7-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-25
19-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-14
24
Assists
27
12
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
DAL
45.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
35.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
86.6
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
21.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3