Jul 31, 25sim 97
2088
3(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10IND
IND
16-12
8878
DAL
8-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 88–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #6
15.3Game score
11
Pts
16
Reb
5
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
20.0Game score
22
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND16-12
8878
DAL8-21
IND16-12DAL8-21
IND
16-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 29 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +20 | |
| 33 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 29 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +13 | |
| 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 88 | 44 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 19 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner | ||||||||
DAL
8-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -15 | |
| 26 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 34 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | |
| 18 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | |
| 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 78 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 14 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
41
25
Ast
16
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
Jun 27IND94@DAL86
IND94@DAL86Jul 13DAL83@IND102
DAL83@IND102Aug 1IND88@DAL78today
IND88@DAL78todayAug 12DAL81@IND80
DAL81@IND80Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 15pp · 1st Quarter · 9:29
INDN. Howard
FGame leader · 31 min
11 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 34 min
22 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
IND beat DAL 88-78. N. Howard led with 11 PTS, 16 REB, 5 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 39 REB · 21 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GS 13
DALstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Bench(5)
31 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL1st Quarter · 9:29 · 0-0
+15pp→ 48% WP
Aliyah Boston · bad pass (Luisa Geiselsoder steals)
IND2nd Quarter · 4:42 · 36-32
+7pp→ 64% WP
Chloe Bibby · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND2nd Quarter · 2:27 · 44-36
+8pp→ 78% WP
Aari McDonald · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 22 | 26 | 22 | 18 | 88 |
| DAL | 22 | 20 | 15 | 21 | 78 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · DAL won 1
22
22
Q1
Mitchell 7
Bueckers 5
26
20
Q2
Bibby 6
Jones 28
22
15
Q3
Mitchell 9
McCowan 6
18
21
Q4
McDonald 7
Bueckers 6
IND
DAL
Shooting comparison
IND
DAL
45%
33-73
FG
41%
26-64
43%
12-28
3PT
13%
2-15
77%
10-13
FT
96%
24-25
Play-by-play · 393 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 88·DAL 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 88·DAL 78
- Q4·10.9
Li Yueru makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (JJ Quinerly assists)
·
IND 88·DAL 78
- Q4·24.0
Aari McDonald makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
·
IND 88·DAL 75
- Q4·38.1
Aziaha James makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 85·DAL 75
- Q4·38.1
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 85·DAL 74
- Q4·38.1
Natasha Howard personal foul
IND 85·DAL 73
- Q4·46.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aari McDonald assists)
·
IND 85·DAL 73
- Q4·49.5
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·50.5
JJ Quinerly blocks Kelsey Mitchell 's 4-foot driving layup
·
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·57.9
Li Yueru enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·57.9
Fever Full timeout
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·1:03
Aari McDonald defensive rebound
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·1:05
Paige Bueckers misses 13-foot jumper
IND 82·DAL 73
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:19
Natasha Howard turnover
IND 82·DAL 73
−1pp
- Q4·1:19
Natasha Howard offensive foul
IND 82·DAL 73
+1pp
- Q4·1:42
JJ Quinerly makes driving layup
IND 82·DAL 73
- Q4·1:50
(01:50) [Fever] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
IND 82·DAL 71
- Q4·1:50
Kelsey Mitchell makes layup (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 82·DAL 71
- Q4·1:52
JJ Quinerly lost ball turnover (Natasha Howard steals)
·
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·1:54
JJ Quinerly defensive rebound
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·1:56
Aliyah Boston misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·2:00
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·2:03
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving layup
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·2:22
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 80·DAL 71
- Q4·2:26
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 80·DAL 71
−1pp
- Q4·2:37
shot clock turnover
IND 80·DAL 71
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:50
JJ Quinerly personal foul
IND 80·DAL 71
−0.7pp
- Q4·3:02
Luisa Geiselsoder makes two point shot
IND 80·DAL 71
+1pp
- Q4·3:02
Luisa Geiselsoder offensive rebound
IND 80·DAL 69
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
33-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-64
45
FG %
41
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-15
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-25
25
Assists
16
19
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
DAL
45.4%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
32.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3