Jul 4, 25sim 96
1189
3(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13DAL
ATL
10-5
5568
DAL
4-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Atlanta Dream, 68–55.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
16.8Game score
23
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
17.9Game score
21
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL10-5
5568
DAL4-12
ATL10-5DAL4-12
ATL
10-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -12 | |
| 39 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 37 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 24 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 55 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 9 | ||
DAL
4-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +5 | |
| 34 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 35 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 26 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 68 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 8 | ||
| DNP: H. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
23
FG %
38
10
Ast
14
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 24DAL75@ATL83
DAL75@ATL83Jun 25ATL55@DAL68today
ATL55@DAL68todayJul 31ATL88@DAL85
ATL88@DAL85Aug 29DAL78@ATL100
DAL78@ATL100Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 32.0
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 37 min
23 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
DAL beat ATL 68-55. A. Ogunbowale led with 21 PTS, 1 REB, 4 AST. DAL outscored the other side 19-10 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 28 REB · 4 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
5 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 1
DALstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST
GS 39
Bench(3)
21 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL2nd Quarter · 2:45 · 20-27
+8pp→ 71% WP
Myisha Hines-Allen · enters the game for Kaila Charles
ATL2nd Quarter · 32.0 · 28-31
+10pp→ 47% WP
Brionna Jones · makes free throw clear path 1 of 2
ATL3rd Quarter · 3:19 · 38-42
+7pp→ 30% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brionna Jones assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 10 | 19 | 11 | 15 | 55 |
| DAL | 19 | 12 | 19 | 18 | 68 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · DAL won 3
10
19
Q1
Howard 4
Yueru 8
19
12
Q2
Howard 8
Ogunbowale 6
11
19
Q3
Gray 6
Ogunbowale 7
15
18
Q4
Jones 7
Ogunbowale 6
ATL
DAL
Shooting comparison
ATL
DAL
23%
15-64
FG
38%
25-66
21%
7-34
3PT
15%
2-13
72%
18-25
FT
89%
16-18
Play-by-play · 397 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·16.1
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·20.0
Te-Hina Paopao misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·29.1
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·29.1
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Brionna Jones
· ·
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·29.1
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·29.1
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·30.0
shot clock turnover
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·53.1
Allisha Gray bad pass (Arike Ogunbowale steals)
·
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·1:02
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 55·DAL 68
- Q4·1:02
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 55·DAL 67
- Q4·1:02
Nia Coffey loose ball foul
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:04
Allisha Gray vs. Kaila Charles
·
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:06
Wings defensive team rebound
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:08
Brittney Griner misses two point shot
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:09
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:10
Nia Coffey misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:27
Arike Ogunbowale makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot
ATL 55·DAL 66
- Q4·1:50
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
ATL 55·DAL 64
- Q4·1:53
Nia Coffey misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 55·DAL 64
+2pp
- Q4·1:53
Nia Coffey makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 55·DAL 64
- Q4·1:53
Paige Bueckers loose ball foul
ATL 54·DAL 64
−2pp
- Q4·1:53
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 54·DAL 64
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:54
Rhyne Howard misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 54·DAL 64
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:07
Nia Coffey enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 54·DAL 64
- Q4·2:07
Brittney Griner enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 54·DAL 64
- Q4·2:07
Dream Full timeout
ATL 54·DAL 64
- Q4·2:11
Arike Ogunbowale makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
·
ATL 54·DAL 64
+1pp
- Q4·2:18
Li Yueru defensive rebound
ATL 54·DAL 62
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
15-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-66
23
FG %
38
7-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-13
18-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-18
10
Assists
14
9
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
DAL
43.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
31.4%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
83.9
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
19.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3